#Earnings Sold to close $DIS Nov 9th 116/118/119 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.39. Bought yesterday for .70. Hovering around my center strike, so closing before it drifts too far away.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
BOIL stopped
#ContangoETFs I got a handful of $BOIL Jan 45 calls, so I need to start rolling out.
BTC 2 of them at 7.00 and 7.10. Sold for 2.40, avg price .
Will consider rolls next week. Need to see if this is going to keep pushing higher.
#bearcallspreads AMZN BTC Nov 09…
#bearcallspreads
AMZN
BTC Nov 09 1735/1785 call spread for 0.80, sold yesterday, with roll down today (1770 to 1735) for $8.40. Waiting for second tranche of 1738/1785 offer to buy for $1.05 which I sold this morning for $5.55
UVXY call spread
Sold $UVXY Nov 30 60/70 call spreads @ 1.15
AMZN put spread
Sold $AMZN Nov 16 1625/1575 BuPS @ 5.00 for next week’s expiration with the stock around 1716. Delta of the short strike is 16.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 9th 2765/2745 put spreads for 2.80. Condor sold at the close yesterday for 1.10. Leaving the calls to expire.
Once we breached 2775 I started riding my exit order. Unfortunately yesterday ended the day with such low volatility that the condor was not very wide to get the 1.00 minimum premium.
I’m continuing to do this on-going. I’m 2 and 2 so far, and about breakeven on P/L since losses are about same size as wins on average. Considering a longer term trade to roll this one while the 1-dte trades continue.
Z covered calls sold
#Earnings #Assignment #CoveredCalls Sold to open $Z Nov 30th 30 covered calls for 1.55.
I’ll be assigned the stock via 34 puts this weekend. This sale will put my cost basis at 31.00, so if called away it will be a 1.00 loss on the trade, which is okay, but hopefully I can get one more call sale in to profit.
Friday clean up
Had some things expiring and others just out of time value so #rolling, closing, adjusting.
TQQQ CC 63 rolled out to 42 DTE and down to 61 for 1.55 credit. CB now 59.10.
TQQQ lot 2 CC 63 same as above. Cb now 59.45.
QQQ 7 DTE 150/155 #supercharger sold to close for 4.92. Bought for 4.52 so about $132 profit on a 3 lot.
New TQQQ #supercharger 21 DTE 40/45 bought for 4.50.
Now just sitting on my hands until next week. Wish I had time to trade /NQ this morning, that would have been profitable.
Have a great weekend 🙂
Adding to TGT
#PreEarnings Added batch 2 out of possible 3. Looks like we may be done going down for the day. If I’m wrong, I’ll add batch 3 for less.
Bought $TGT Nov 23rd 89 calls for 1.75.
BOILing higher
#ContangoETFs New highs today. For those of you without the history, scroll through the daily chart back a few years. You’ll see it can have some strong pushes up, but it always comes back down. Since winter hasn’t started, we could see this uptrend continue for weeks. If you’re forced to roll, you can decide whether to stop out today, and wait to sell replacement calls days or weeks later. Be very careful selling puts. It can work great as we fly higher, but don’t sit in short puts waiting for the last few pennies. Take profits, because when this thing turns around, it’ll drop fast.
Just note, the effective price when this thing started in 2011 is 4,000. It WILL come down eventually.
TTD put spread
Sold $TTD Dec 21 100/90 BuPS @ 1.30
#bearcallspreads AMZN sold 1785/1735 Nov…
AMZN sold 1785/1735 Nov 09 calls for $8.40 and again $5.55 as prices fades below 1720 presently.
#butterfly NFLX TastyTrade idea, adjusted…
#butterfly NFLX
TastyTrade idea, adjusted the strikes to a Dec. 21, 250/260/260/265 put butterfly for .50, profitable above 255, stock at 308.
UVXY added
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY June 100 calls for 6.90
TTD closed
#Earnings BTC $TTD Nov 9th 100 puts for .20. The 100/90 put spreads sold yesterday for 1.75.
Gartman
I read over on SMM that someone posted that Gartman says it is time to sell. I cannot confirm that info.
TNA TQQQ SSO
Closed Nov9 short puts for .20 and rolled to Nov16 expiration. Swapped SSO out and added UPRO.
#pietrades
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Almost forgot about this so order placed after the bell. Volatility has dropped quite a lot since Tuesday; this condor in only 75 wide, whereas Tue/Wed 1-dte was 160 wide!
Sold $SPX Nov 9th 2745/2765/2840/2860 condors for 1.10. Expires tomorrow.
TTD earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $TTD Nov 9th 100/90 put spreads for 1.75. Had this order in and it filled right before the bell. Stock just dropped after the bell, 100.50 the low (so far)!
I was trying for $YELP long straddle but didn’t want to pay over 6.20, so no fill. Now I can see it dropped 12.00 so it would have been a nice winner. Dick for a tick!
#earnings #ironbutterfly DIS Sold Nov….
#earnings #ironbutterfly DIS
Sold Nov. 16, 105/115/115/125 for 4.27, thanks for the data Jeff.
#shortputs MU Sold Dec. 21…
#shortputs MU
Sold Dec. 21 , 35 put for .71
Fed
In its first meeting since October's market turmoil and this week's midterm elections, the Federal Reserve voted to maintain the current level of its benchmark interest rate.https://t.co/wz6jxRZHaM
— CNBC (@CNBC) November 8, 2018
YELP earnings analysis
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 8, 2018 AC 26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC 27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC 12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC 23.71%
Feb. 8, 2016 AC -2.30%
Oct. 28, 2015 AC 3.98%
Avg + or – 13.42%
Bias 4.04%, a slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 44.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 38.07 to 49.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.44 to 50.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 32.12 to 56.68
I have more than once bought straddles and profited from this. More than a double on August’s earnings. Even if it opens flat you can get out with a small loss or breakeven. However, I’m seeing today’s straddle is going for about 6.00, which is over a dollar more than I paid in August. I’ll be considering it at day’s end.
Open for requests on other symbols.
#ironcondor AMZN TastyTrade idea, sold…
#ironcondor AMZN
TastyTrade idea, sold Dec. 21 1605/1610/1935/1940 for 1.97.
TTD earnings analysis
#Earnings This is a fairly new issue (oldest earnings date is Nov 2016). It has had huge moves up but minimal moves down. I’m looking at selling the 100 puts, since that’s farther down than its biggest drop. Unless somebody warns me off it!
$TTD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 8 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 9, 2018 AC 37.13%
May 10, 2018 AC 43.39% Biggest UP
Feb. 22, 2018 AC 23.84%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC -13.96% Biggest Down
Aug. 10, 2017 AC 8.76%
May 11, 2017 AC 30.10%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC -2.84%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC 8.62%
Avg + or – 21.08%
Bias 16.88%, huge positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 127.80 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 105.08 to 150.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 100.86 to 154.74
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (43.4%): 72.35 to 183.25
Open for requests on other symbols.
DIS earnings trade
#Earnings Not a big mover… I’m slightly bullish looking at the chart so doing a low risk #BrokenWingButterfly.
Bought to open $DIS Nov 9th 116/118/119 call butterfly for .70. No upside risk. Breakeven around 116.80. Max profit around 70%.
DIS earnings analysis
#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC 2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87%
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC 2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC 1.23%
May 10, 2016 AC -4.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2016 AC -3.75%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 2.36%
Avg + or – 2.30%
Bias -0.89%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 116.5 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 113.02 to 119.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 113.82 to 119.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.0%): 111.79 to 119.83
Open for requests on other symbols.
REGN
#BullPutSpreads – Selling against ITM put spreads. Closing it now since this thing could be up 30 tomorrow….you never know.
Bought to Close REGN NOV 9 2018 385.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.70)
FB Falling Knife
Hard to imagine this one would qualify but the chart is the chart.
Sold $FB Mar 15 2019 110 puts @ 1.17.
Delta is 7, and the strike is another 25% lower from here.
#FallingKnife
ATVI earnings analysis
#Earnings $ATVI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -3.69%
May 3, 2018 AC 4.51%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 1.90%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -3.43%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -3.06%
May 4, 2017 AC 1.37%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC 18.87% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.85%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.66%
May 5, 2016 AC 8.47%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -7.86% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 3.26%
Avg + or – 5.08%
Bias 1.32%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 63.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 58.59 to 67.41
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 59.80 to 66.20
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 51.11 to 74.89
NOTE: The 18.9% up move is an outlier. It’s the biggest move going all the way back to 2002. So if you remove the outlier, the MAX is 8.5%, which would indicate a range of 57.66 to 68.34.
Open for requests on other symbols.
ROKU Earnings
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Out at even. Any little bounce tomorrow and it might have been a decent winner but I’ll run while I can and look to re-load. Still a great year in this ticker. 6-0-1 now 🙂 🙂
Bought to Close 1 ROKU NOV 9 2018 50.0/70.0 Strangle @2.47 (sold for 2.54)
A TRADE:
:
ROKU STO 11/9/18 47.0 PUTS @1.06 Down big, earnings yesterday, when I was young. Expires tomorrow.
PVTL calls closed
#CoveredCalls BTC $PVTL Nov 16th 21 covered calls for .05. Sold for .70 .
Assigned at 22.5, cost basis now down to 19.80.
ERX
#ShortPuts #IRA #RiskOff – Another one I’m not completely comfortable with. See ya!
Bought to Close ERX JAN 18 2019 25.0 Puts @ 1.65 (sold for 2.02)
TGT pre-earnings
#PreEarnings Bought to Open $TGT Nov 23rd 89 calls for 1.62.
Got then from Mama’s chart… .40 delta, (close to) 14 days out from Nov 20th earnings date. 1st batch of up to three. Initial target: 2.70. Thanks @kathycon!
CRM
#ShortPuts #IRA – Stealing @Iceman ‘s #RiskOff tag here. Getting a weak bounce but with resistance still overhead I’m gonna book it and free up the cash.
Bought to Close CRM NOV 16 2018 140.0 Put @ 1.68 (sold for 2.65)
#shortputs #rolling Z Oct. 1…
#shortputs #rolling #shortstraddle Z
Oct. 1 sold a 35/50 strangle in Z, big drop after earnings, rolled the 35 put to Dec. 21 for .55, sold Dec. 35 call for .70, stock is at 30
WYNN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – I’m finding another advantage of going out in time as far as possible. There’s no need to get super aggressive with weekly sales. Still very easy to cover cost by selling about 30 days out leaving plenty of room for whipsaw. Here’s my WYNN example:
Bought to Close WYNN NOV 9 2018 115.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.32)
This reduces the basis on the 130 strike LEAPS to 23.05
With 26 months to go that only requires .87 per month to cover the cost so:
Sold WYNN DEC 7 2018 115.0 Calls @ 1.13
Expected move on the Dec 7th expiration is about 12 dollars so even though selling below the LEAPS, it’s still outside the expected move and well above the .87 required.
Rolling WYNN
Looks like I’m gonna be in this one for quite a while.
Rolled $WYNN Nov 16 140 puts out to Jan 18 140 puts for .75 credit.
ROKU puts
Sold $ROKU Dec 21 40 puts @ 1.43 with the stock at 49.12. Delta 18 delta.
TWLO
#Earnings – I’m out taking max loss of .74 on a one lot. Assigned short shares overnight that I covered in pre-market. Sold the long call side at the open. Loss was slightly more than .74 with exercise fee and commissions.
Closed TWLO NOV 9 2018 66.0/71.0/76.0 Iron Fly
AMZN call spread
#LongCallSpread Bought to Open $AMZN Nov 23rd 1800/1810 call spreads for 2.69. Purely speculative, and aggressive with the short time period.
Z assigned
#Earnings #Assignment Assigned at 34.00 on only one of my 13 puts on $Z. Cost basis 32.55. The rest will be assigned tonight unless I get an exit today. No big worry with a low stock price.
ROKU Earnings
#Earnings – Stand back….this thing could be at 30 or 100 now that I’m in. After WTW and OLED I’m only doing a single strangle.
Sold 1 ROKU NOV 9 2018 50.0/70.0 Strangle @ 2.54
SQ trade
#Earnings Since we have two days for this to drift around, I’m shooting for the center, hoping that any gap will be closed by Friday.
Sold to open $SQ Nov 9th 77.5/82.5/87.5 #IronButterfly for 4.00. Max risk 1.00.
Closing some UVXY
I’m not putting on many naked short calls on this one these days but the ones I do are on a short leash.
Bought to close $UVXY Jan 18 2019 112 calls @ 1.70. Sold for 4.40 and 6.20 on 10/18 and 10/23.
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Now that we’re easing back into contango I’m going to lower the number of short calls I have at risk at any given time so gradually closing those for nice profits. I’ll continue selling one (or two) every week at the top of my put ladder. Short 10 puts against one short call would give me protection for about 30-40 points of upside depending on the week of the call sale. I would welcome the opportunity to roll the short call and let the puts expire…
Bought to Close UVXY NOV 16 2018 70.0 Call @ .38 (sold for 3.40)
Sold UVXY NOV 16 2018 50.0 Call @ 3.00
Analyzing just the call sale against the short puts gives this. The downside is exaggerated here since I’ve unchecked the LEAP puts that I’m long.
#ironcondor AMZN Closed yesterday’s IC…
#ironcondor AMZN
Closed yesterday’s IC for 1.10. sold yesterday for 2.03.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 2875/2900 call spreads for 4.25. This offsets the 2700/2675 put spread sold on Monday.
TRADES:
SFIX STO 11/16/18 27.5 PUTS @.85 I’m looking t be assigned.
ACAD BTO STOCK @20.59
ACAD STO 11/16/18 21.0 CALLS @.90 A fluke, since I couldn’t repeat the trade.
.
AAPL #ironcondor Couldn’t get filled…
AAPL #ironcondor
Couldn’t get filled on TWLO strangles yesterday, so it goes.
AAPL sold Dec. 21, 180/190/230/240 for 1.52.
TLT
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Not seeing a huge bond rally so easing back into these. Hopefully these will take some heat. Stops set on the Nov 30th sale.
Sold TLT DEC 7 2018 115.0 Calls @ .41
OLED
#ShortCalls – Re-loading….
Bought to Close OLED NOV 9 2018 105.0 Calls @ .23 (sold for 1.15)
Sold OLED NOV 23 2018 108.0 Calls @ 1.00
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Bought to Close UVXY NOV 9 2018 62.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.72)
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 7th 2810 calls for 1.70.
Taking a small loss on the 1-day condor, sold yesterday for 1.30. My rule is to stop or roll if we get within 10-points of the short strike. I’m not going to roll because loss is small.
I’ll do this again tomorrow for Friday’s expiration.
TQQQ covered calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold to Open $TQQQ Nov 16th 59 calls for 1.25.
TWLO closed for now
#Earnings This doesn’t appear that it will stop. Of course, once one decides that, that’s where it will stop.
But I’m looking for this to go higher. I looked at the lifetime chart, and every gap up is NOT filled… stock continues higher and never revisits the opening low on post-earnings day. This, however, is a gigantic move. I’m going to look to sell some OTM puts, and then wait for higher prices to try to sell calls or strangles.
BTC $TWLO Nov 9th 85 calls for 10.55. Strangles sold yesterday for 1.96.
TWLO & Z… in the vice
#Earnings… Should have closed both of these right at the open. Getting killed on both ends.
Short the $Z 34/47 strangles
Short the $TWLO 60/85 strangles
$Z will be manageable at such a low stock price. $TWLO is unpredictable because it could run for a very long time without stopping. Watching for now. Will roll as necessary.
DUST
UVXY
AMZN
STC Nov 9 1600/1602.5 Calls $2.50
BTO Monday for 1.90 #supercharger
PYPL calls sold
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $PYPL Nov 16th 88 calls for 1.15.
TSLA closed
#ShortStrangles #EarningsTradeRepair
BTC $TSLA Nov 9th 320/365 strangles for 1.50. Sold last Friday for 6.37.
Almost got my money back from the August madness. Will sell another on Friday.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO 8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC 5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC 7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC 1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC 15.83% Biggest UP
Oct. 15, 2015 AC -1.16%
Avg (+ or -) 6.15%
Bias 0.54%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 112.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 103.05 to 120.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 118.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 94.27 to 129.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 11 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC 1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC 3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC 8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC 14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC 8.42%
May 5, 2016 AC -21.68% Biggest DOWN
March 9, 2016 AC -6.06%
Avg + or – 7.60%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 71.15 to 86.85
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 73.00 to 85.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.7%): 61.87 to 96.13
Open for requests on other symbols.
REGN
#ShortCalls – Replacing this week’s…
Sold REGN NOV 30 2018 390.0 Call @ 2.50
TQQQ
#ShortPuts #IRA – First March position. 20.4% annualized…
Sold 1 TQQQ MAR 15 2019 35.0 Put @ 2.35
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2630/2650/2810/2830 condors for 1.30. Expires tomorrow.
Excellent premium available at a .05-.06 delta on the short strikes. Won’t be this easy after volatility drops.
History Lesson from Risk/Hedge
From RiskHedge
“So let’s steer clear of opinion and emotion. Instead, I want to focus solely on the facts that are relevant to you as an investor. As you’ll see, you don’t need to waste even one second worrying about which party will win on Tuesday. I was surprised by what we found.
Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress.
Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks.”
#shortputspread AMZN TastyTrade idea sold…
#shortputspread AMZN
TastyTrade idea sold Dec. 21 1600/1605 put spread for 2.03.
TWLO Earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies – Just for fun…need about half the expected move. Low probability but low risk.
Sold 1 TWLO NOV 9 2018 66.0/71.0/76.0 Iron Fly @ 4.26
Adding to TQQQ
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 calls for 8.15. Adding to my position. Avg cost (not including #SyntheticCoveredCalls) now 10.12. Hard to believe I paid 17.60 for the first one.
Also, BTC $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for .35. Sold for 1.30 last Wednesday.
Now that I have a full position the call selling will continue to bring down cost basis. I won’t necessarily be holding this very long… I may close it if we reach new highs at the end of this year. I’m not so optimistic about the bull market lasting through 2019.
Closing Nov SFIX
Bought to close $SFIX Nov 16 24 puts @ .20. Sold for 1.05 on 10/2.
TRADES:
AMD BTO STOCK @21.42
AMD STO 11/9/18 21.5 CALLS @.70
TWLO BTC 11/9/18 78.0 CALL @2.42 STO Earlier today @3.00 Didn’t realize earning’s were today. THANK YOU @Jeff.
TWLO earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $TWLO Nov 9th 60/85 strangles for 1.96. I am -16.7% and +18.1% OTM.
Options Bistro 