AMD Just had a spurt over 21.
Monthly Archives: November 2018
TWLO earnings analysis
#Earnings $TWLO reports tonight. I missed this one on my side chart, so including analysis here. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 8 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 6, 2018 AC 18.69%
May 8, 2018 AC 18.17%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 16.18%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC -6.82%
Aug. 7, 2017 AC 9.99%
May 2, 2017 AC -26.31%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 1.55%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.15%
Avg + or – 12.61%
Bias 3.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 72.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 61.53 to 82.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.92 to 81.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.3%): 53.06 to 90.94
Open for requests on other symbols.
Z earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings Sold to Open $Z Nov 9th 34/47 strangles for 1.45.
$Z reports Wednesday morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC 2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC 9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC 12.05% Biggest UP
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -0.89%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC -6.27%
Avg + or – 6.38%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.60 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 34.57 to 46.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.01 to 43.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 34.60 to 46.60
Expected move is same as MAX moves. Trade carefully..
Open for requests on other symbols.
TLT
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Taking a little pre-election risk off since I had triple sold these.
Bought to Close TLT NOV 16 2018 117.0 Calls @ .06 (sold for .40)
Bought to Close TLT NOV 23 2018 117.0 Calls @ .09 (sold for .34)
WTW
#CoveredCalls #LongCalls #LEAPS – Not getting much of a bounce so converting the stock into a LEAPS position out to 2021. Rolling the stock loss into the basis of the LEAPS. Frees up a lot of cash and takes risk off.
Sold WTW Stock @ 48.46
Bought to Close WTW NOV 9 2018 51.0 Calls @ .55 (sold for 1.15)
Exited the position with the stock at a basis of 57.61 and added a couple extra LEAPS (300 stock vs 5 LEAPS now)
Bought to Open WTW JAN 15 2021 50.0 Calls @ 15.00
Sold WTW DEC 7 2018 55.0 Calls @ 1.00
Factoring in the stock loss the new LEAPS basis will be 20.50. I’ll sell the calls about every 30 days to give it some recovery room. Still only need about 75 cents every 30 days. Goal is to get out at even unless it really gets on a run.
#earnings AXDX Jeff-do you have…
#earnings AXDX
Jeff-do you have earnings data on AXDX? Thanks
A TRADE:
$TWLO STO 11/9/18 78.0 CALL @3.00
#earnings #shortstraddle #closing FAST October…
#earnings #shortstraddle #closing FAST
October 8, sold a Nov. 16, 57.50 straddle for 5.14, closed today for 4.55.
UVXY
A TRADE:
SFIX STO 11/9/18 29.0 CALLS @ .50
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign An aggressive bullish trade… purely speculative, that rally will continue or kick in higher gear after the election.
Sold $SPX Nov 30th 2700/2675 put spreads for 7.00.
CVS
Dbl Cal 74 $0.58
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Giving it some incentive to stay up as long as possible. These premiums are awesome…
Sold UVXY DEC 7 2018 70.0 Call @ 4.10
UNG
#LongPuts #LEAPS – I’ll take a shot with a half size starter. Longer term bearish mainly due to contango and global warming 🙂 . Going out to 2020 since option prices aren’t that much more to get an extra nine months. I’ll sell aggressively in the beginning and then hopefully be able to get out of the way later on. Planning on selling about every 30 days so still only need 23 cents in each sale.
Bought to Open UNG JAN 17 2020 28.0 Puts @ 3.55
Sold UNG NOV 30 2018 27.5 Puts @ .71
SVXY
I forgot to post. I STO the 50 calls @ .98 cents to replace the 54 calls that expired on Friday.
STX
I bought to close the January 40 puts @ 1.25 which is where I sold them. I am trying to close all my positions at my cost if I can. I feel that with the FED raising rates, the market is vulnerable and the damage done to the market means to me that we are no longer in a bull market. I will keep my position in the TQQQ and write short dated covered calls against my 2021 60 calls.
Closing ANET
Taking 50+% profits wherever available right now.
Bought to close $ANET Jan 18 185 puts @ 1.45. Sold for 3.00 on 10/8.
Another BOIL
#ContangoETFs Sold $BOIL March 50 call for 4.15
Q: TQQQ naked puts
For those of you who sell naked puts on TQQQ and TNA, do you typically get assigned early if you’re ITM?
Adding VIX long puts
#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX Dec 18th $VIX 16 puts for .80.
I tried this for Oct 30th with a full loss. Holding a batch for Nov 16th, underwater, needs a huge post-election rally.
These December contracts have a better shot.
SPX mid-term stats from Trader’s Almanac
The case is pretty compelling for a rally here. However, this is a strange year so anything could happen.
Midterm bulls
$SPX down 5% in the past month; it either rallies >5% the next 2 months, or it’s only the 2nd time returns have been negative in the past 84 yrs (from DB) pic.twitter.com/0EO5fWnwv3
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) November 5, 2018
A TRADE:
SFIX BTO STOCK @27.35
ADDED:
PBYI BTO STOCK 23.50
A TRADE:
BTO PBYI STOCK @23.03
This was an add to stock I BTO Friday @20.00. Bottom fished, stock was cut in half Friday.
SPX 1-dte, removing risk
#SPXcampaign Guarding against a sharp drop. I don’t think it will happen, but removing the risk makes the day calmer.
BTC $SPX Nov 5th 2645 puts for .15. I’ll let the other three legs expire.
The 2625/2645/2765/2785 condors sold for 1.20 on Friday.
BOIL lancing higher
#ContangoETFs $BOIL gapped up to a 10-month high.
Sold BOIL Dec 21st 45 call for 3.40, filled on a long-standing GTC order, adding to my position.
BKNG earnings analysis (formerly PCLN)
#Earnings $BKNG reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -5.01%
May 9, 2018 AC -4.74%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 6.77%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -13.51% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -6.93%
May 9, 2017 AC -4.51%
Feb. 27, 2017 AC 5.64%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC 6.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC 3.98%
May 4, 2016 BO -7.50%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO 11.24% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2015 BO -9.56%
Avg + or – 7.17%
Bias -1.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.
***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +15.6%.
With stock at 1880.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1750.90 to 2009.10
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1745.28 to 2014.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 1626.01 to 2133.99
Open for requests on other symbols.
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO 2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO 6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO 1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO 4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 4, 2015 BO -2.42%
Avg + or – 3.50%
Bias +0.60%, no significant bias on earnings.
***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +9.5%.
With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 329.66 to 378.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 366.38 to 341.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 329.26 to 378.74
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-DTE
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 5th 2625/2645/2765/2785 Iron Condors for 1.20. Expire Monday.
SBUX dbl calendar
#Earnings Biggest move in years means #DoubleCalendar is no good…
Sold to close $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 double calendars closed for .07. Bought yesterday for .48.
I closed the calls, but the left the short put to expire and the long put as a lottery ticket next week.
Bond prices and the election?
This article is a few months old but would you guys agree with this? Not being left or right politically just wondering if Dems controlling the house would be a catalyst for bonds to rise? I’ve got some TLT exposure in the event of a rally so debating about booking a big chunk of it Monday.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/midterm-swing-to-democrats-could-lift-bonds-strategists-say-2018-08-23
Poll results
35% higher
47% lower
18% sideways
Since the poll SPX is up 5-8 points
BABA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Got through earnings with close to the number I wanted. Booking a fairly quick one here so I can concentrate on moving away from individual stocks in these types of plays. Like the ETFs better for long term trading. Fifth time being in and out of BABA this year…
Sold to Close BABA JAN 15 2021 150.0 Calls
Bought to Close BABA NOV 2 2018 150.0 Calls
All said and done it’s a 2.24 winner in a big ‘ol 2 lot. 🙂
REGN
#ShortCalls – Early fill this morning. Earnings next week but not an earnings play here.
Bought to Close REGN NOV 2 2018 365.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.25)
Sold REGN NOV 9 2018 385.0 Call @ 1.70
#shortstock KBE Back in, sold…
#shortstock KBE PAG
KBE Back in, sold short 100 shares at 43.20
PAG Sold 100 shares short of Penske at 45.08
Econ Calendar for week of 11/5/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=11&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
WTW
#CoveredCalls – Was hoping to be out of this today but another implosion so I’ll be holding longer. Receiving another 100 shares today from the Jade Lizard at a basis of 59.80.
Basis in overall position is now 58.15 so more work to do….
Sold WTW NOV 9 2018 51.0 Calls @ 1.15
SPX short expiration
Jeff be careful about these short expiration for now, the market is very unpredictable. It goes up +50 and then within either the day or next day it goes -50. It will be a successful trade once the market is settling down.
Higher or lower into the close?
SPX 1 DTE closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Nov 2nd 2665/2445 put spread for .40. This was trading at about 1.40 a few minutes ago. Not taking the chance of another 100-point down day, and .65 profit is fine for 1 day.
Sold the condor yesterday for 1.05. I’ll let the 2780/2800 call side expire.
Selling another one of these for Monday expiry at end of today.
#coveredcalls WDC All this talk…
#coveredcalls WDC
All this talk of selling calls against assigned stock-sold Nov. 16, 51 call for .46, dropping my basis into the 69s!
OLED
#BullPutSpreads #TradeRepair – Rolling my 123 puts out to an ITM put spread in Jan 2020. Already had a few there so this adds to it. It’s a 40 wide put spread. Selling a buck a week will cover the spread plus a little more. Maybe get lucky and the stock rallies next year too. Low margin and defined risk also helps.
Rolled OLED NOV 2 2018 123.0 Puts to JAN 17 2020 145.0/105.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 4.97 credit.
AAPL TEVA Earnings
#Earnings – Both max loss. A 3 lot and a 1 lot. Gave back a small portion of the STMP and BIDU winners.
Bought to Close 3 TEVA NOV 2 2018 18.5/20.0/21.5 Iron Flies @ 1.50 (sold for 1.17)
Bought to Close 1 AAPL NOV 2 2018 212.5/220.0/227.5 Iron Fly @ 7.45 (sold for 6.25)
TSLA weekly strangle
#ShortStrangle Sold to open $TSLA Nov 9th 320/365 strangles for 6.37
EXPE rolled the 126 puts…
EXPE rolled the 126 puts that expire today out 15 days for 1.85. Cb now 13.03 and have brought in $4750 in premium in 4 weeks on a 10 lot #fuzzy and still have 805 days left.
This is a good one for #pietrades but if they go wring converting to a #fuzzy also seems to work.
Hope everyone else has a good expiration and weekend 🙂
SBUX explodes
#Earnings Today’s up move is its biggest since April 2009… even the intraday high is biggest since that date.
Guess I picked the wrong day to trade it neutrally.
ANET closed
#Earnings BTC $ANET Nov 2nd 270 calls for .20. The 202.5/270 strangles sold yesterday for 2.025. I’ll let the puts expire.
OLED WTW
I’m out all morning but it looks like i know how to pick em. Gonna be a long slog of covered call writing on these two. Might be able to roll somewhere so I’ll check that when i get home.
Good luck!
AAPL post earnings
Sold:
$AAPL Nov 16 200/190 BuPS for 1.10
$AAPL Dec 21 195/185 BuPS for 1.40
AAPL closed
#Earnings BTC $AAPL Nov 2nd 205 puts for .20. Sold yesterday for 1.60. The 232.5 calls were sold for 1.12 (avg price) and I’ll let them expire.
EOG closed
#Earnings Sold to close $EOG Nov2/Nov9 106 #DoubleCalendar for 2.80. Bought yesterday for 1.90.
In other EOG news, this was the last of my #PreEarnings trades, all of which failed. My long 125 calls are worthless. Plain & simply, these ain’t gonna work if a correction hits. My mistake was entering most of these trades AFTER a downside warning hit. Lesson learned!
The win on the calendar makes me breakeven on EOG, so it’s a sunny day.
October Jobs Report
#Jobs Higher than expected.
+250,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 190K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.4%, down by 0.1
Wages up 0.2%, or 5 cents, 3.1% year over year, highest increase April 2009
Labor force participation 62.9%, up 0.2
September revised downward from 134k to 118k
August increased 270k to 286k
WDC adjust at the close
Rolled the 22 DTE 47 call out to 43 DTE for 0.74 credit. Cost basis now 21.4.
ANET
Up $30 after earnings, $260 stock.
AAPL Earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies -Throwing a little house money at this one. Risk 125 to make 625 selling an iron fly 7.50 wide on a 10 dollar expected move.
Sold AAPL NOV 2 2018 212.5/220.0/227.5 Iron Fly @ 6.25
SBUX dbl calendar
#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 #DoubleCalendar for .48.
Trying for an $EOG 106 calendar for 1.90 but may bail if I don’t get filled.
SPX 1 DTE
#SPXcampaign trying something new to me, but I know is a common strategy for others.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 2645/2665/2780/2800 iron condors for 1.05. Expire tomorrow. Will roll into a longer term condor if SPX gets within 10 pts of either short.
IV has gone up in last 20 minutes so you can get this for more, or move out a strike.
SBUX DubCal
Bot Nov2/9 59 double calendar x2 @ .43. GTC order to sell @.80
#doublecalendar
AMZN
STC Nov 9 1550/1555 Calls $4.25 #suppercharger
bought a week or so $3.75 was under water last week
LABU
Rolled November 2, 72 calls to November 16, 75 calls for a credit of .47 cents. I own the 115 calls in 2021.
Bistro activity….?
#OffTopic – Are we getting close to a record day for number of posts? Volatility sure adds to the volume here!
WTW Earnings
#Earnings – Skipping BABA but really want to do something. Since I’ve got WTW stock already (small position) with DITM covered calls I’m overlaying a Jade Lizard on top of that skewed to the downside.
Sold WTW NOV 2 2018 62.0/70.0/72.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.20
UVXY
#ShortCalls – Booking it because you just never know…
Bought to Close UVXY NOV 2 2018 70.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.35)
OLED
Not really an #Earnings trade. Had been selling calls against some DITM short put spreads. With the yuuge rally into earnings the calls are taking some heat. With all the premium available I’m busting up the calls into short strangles and skewed fairly bullish.
Rolled OLED NOV 2 2018 125.0 Calls to NOV 2 2018 123.0/138.0 Strangles @ .05 credit
AAPL calls
#Earnings I’m legging into $AAPL short Nov 2nd 232.5 calls, against the 205 puts I sold this morning. Filled on 1 so far at 1.02. Next fill is for 1.10.
WHIZ…
Says a retest is still coming. Nothing crazy but a technical pullback….
EWW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Booking the over write for safety…
Bought to Close EWW NOV 9 2018 48.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .37)
TQQQ
Rolled November 16, 59 calls out to December 21, 61 calls for a credit of 1.03 so a better strike price and nice premium with 107 more weeks to go. I will have covered 25% of my cost by December 21.
TSLA calls closed
BTC $TSLA Nov 2nd 290/350 strangles for 3.01. Sold for 6.50 last Friday. Will look to do another one tomorrow.
ANET earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings Sold to Open $ANET Nov 2nd 202.5/270 strangles for 2.05.
$ANET reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC 11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC 19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC 3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC 18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
May 5, 2016 AC 5.11%
Feb. 18, 2016 AC 11.77%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 13.71%
Avg + or – 9.82%
Bias 4.31%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 237.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 215.96 to 258.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 214.17 to 260.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 191.35 to 283.65
Open for requests on other symbols.
Closing AMD
Bought to close $AMD Nov 16 17 puts @ .34. Sold for .72 on 10/25.
EOG reset
This one got away from me as I chased the short puts up as it made it almost to 130. Now back down to 104 so I had a mess and was long the 115 2020 outs and short the 36 DTE 120 puts. Rolled the entire thing down and out so now have the 110 long 2020 puts and the 43 DTE 110 puts. All said and done the shorts cost me 7.85, I had a credit of 2.82 for the long roll down, adding that to my cost basis of 7.66 I now have a total cost basis of 12.69 but no margin requirement.
Will keep selling and may eventually convert it to 2021 if it stabilizes.
Now I am done for a while, trade smart!
UVXY
W closed
#Earnings BTC $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for .24. Sold strangles yesterday for 1.82.
Options Bistro 