Back at work so have…

Back at work so have not had time to update. Managed to get a few trades in. This is update of current positions.

#pietrades
Tues. STO IBB 107.5 5/3 put for 1 right before the medicare for all gave all the biotechs and insurers a haircut. Will be adjusting this for a few weeks.
IWM STO the 5/10 152 put for 1.21 today. May convert to #lizardpies depending on market moves
LNG 67.5 put was rolled down last week for cost basis of 66.8. Need to adjust and exp. 5/3.
AMAT 43.5 CC expires next week. cb 42.55
ERX 23 cc expires today/assigned and cb 21.81
LNG batch 2 same as above but cb 67.15. Had a better fill.
TNA expiring today 65 put rolled to next week 64 for 0.48 credit. Cb 63.52 if assigned but will manage
TQQQ 53.5 cc expires next week. 56.75 cb. I tried to roll it but the MM are being greedy bloodsuckers so will take the minor loss and use the money on something else.
AMAT 41.5 put expiring today rolled to 42.5 next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 42.08.

#lizardpies
EXPE 113/130/131 for 5/10 credit now 3.84. Hope to close next week.
SQ 74/78/78.5 adjusted Tues for additional credit. 72.81 cost basis

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb down to 7.34
GILD batch 2 65/65 cb at 5.23
XBI 80/80/85 rolled today. Cb 8.96

I am trying a 21 DTE OTM experiment as I noticed while I was off OTM options usually crushed by over half from 21 DTE down to 14 DTE if they stayed OTM. Percentage wise much better than 45 DTE and really not to much closer to the money on strikes. Maybe 1-3. Will keep posted but I am hoping there will be a lot less adjusting. Adjustments just decrease profits. Will keep you posted.

Hoppy Easter everyone 🙂

Expired

#optionsexpiration
$HIIQ 31 calls (covered)
$SFLY 42.5 calls (covered)
$BEAT 60 calls (covered)
$LABU 58.5 calls (covered)
$DELL 57.5 puts
$AMZN 1470/1490 BUPS
$AMZN 1840/1845 BUPS
$CMG 720/730 BECS

#assignment
$PYX 25 puts
$HIIQ 39 and 40 puts

Thanks to all that make this forum compelling.
Have a Joyous Easter, a Happy Passover or just a plain fantastic weekend. Or choose all THREE! 😉

AXP closed

#Earnings Sold to close $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .69, .73, and .90. Bought for .48 yesterday.

I got .90 for one at the open… then waiting lowered the profit for the rest as the stock rose.

Closed $IBM dub cal for .03. Bought for .407 on Tuesday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 22nd 2855/2875-2930/2945 condors at .80 (IV: 5.49%, SPX: 2904)

Closing UVXY 5/24

Bought to close $UVXY 5/24 45/55 bear call spread @ .40. Sold for 1.34 on 4/9.

HON closed

#Earnings Sold to close $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Bought yesterday for .55.

$AXP will be the profitable one… order in for 1.10, seeing if price can come to me, or I will lower my ask.

SPX 6-dte closed

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 24th 2900/2875 put spreads for 5.35. Sold for 6.95 on Monday. Index has not performed well for being under a (minor) upside warning, and this spread has bounced in and out of profit. Taking the profit while I can.

ISRG earnings analysis

#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
July 19, 2016 AC +4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC +3.34%

Avg (+ or -) 4.29%
Bias 0.88%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 530.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into NEXT Friday per TOS): 497.67 to 562.33 (8 days, Friday)
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 507.28 to 552.72 (4 days, Monday)
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 486.70 to 573.30 (4 days, Monday)
EIGHT-day max moves: UP: +9.8% (581.94), DOWN: -7.8% (488.66)

Open to requests for other symbols.

A TRADE:

NVTA STO 5/17/19 ITM PUT @1.80 Risky

A TRADE:

SKX STO 4/26/19 31.0 NTM PUTS @.55

XBI short puts

Sold $XBI 5/17 77 puts @ 1.13 with XBI at 83.11. Delta 21.

SKX partial closed

#Earnings Closed $SKX 35 long puts for 5.00. Only got a couple closed before the crash. Now price has recovered some, so I will wait to see if it falls again. Otherwise, i’ll be disputing this and asking for at least 4.90. (Strangles bought for 4.15 yesterday).

Order in to close $AXP for 1.30. I show mid price as .90 currently.

$HON too high to close now, may take loss

$IBM also out of range.

TRADES:

SKX STO 4/28/19 32.5 CALLS @.65
SKX STO 428/19 32.0 CALLS @.66

Nightmare

Total Interactive Brokers meltdown on both my computers. Unable to execute trades and missed closings on several trades. On the phone with them for over an hour now.

Roll GOOS Calls / Closing NFLX / SPX Campaign

#coveredcalls
$GOOS BTC 4/26 51 calls and STO 5/17 55 calls at .80 debit. Stock at 52.73.

#earnings
$NFLX BTC 4/18 345/355/375/365 at 1.50. STO yesterday at 8.40. Thank you @jeffcp66. I was away from trading this morning and placed orders for the $NFLX trades last night. I know I am not good, but this time lucky.

#shortputs
$NFLX BTC 4/18 340/350 BUPS at .40. STO 3/15 at 2.73
$NFLX BTC 4/18 310/330 BUPS at .20. STO 3/15 at 3.81

Above were partly offset by the $NFLX BTO 4/18 370 calls and 350 calls which were closed for 90% losses.

#spxcampaign
$SPX 4/17 2665/2685/2950/2930 Expired. STO at .90. Thank you @jeffcp66

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 18th (weeklys) 2850/2870-2925/2945 condors for .90. (IV 9.42% SPX 2901)

I’m going to close the put side of my monthly spread to avoid gap risk. Hopefully for .10, but may be .15 or .20.

A TRADE:

AMD 5/3/19 STO 28.0 NTM CALLS @1.62 Trading around a stock position.

HON dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55.

#earnings #longcalls SKX I bought…

#earnings #longcalls SKX
I bought a May 17, 35 call for 2.64. I own 100 shares from getting assigned last September, also short a 24 call (yes 24) with a cost basis of 31 for the position.

SKX strangle

Earnings #LongStrangle
Was planning for a #LongStraddle but since price is between strikes and stock has bullish bias on earnings,

Bought $SKX 35/35.5 strangle for 4.15. Need a 12.5% move in either direction to breakeven. Avg move on stock has been 16.2%.

LABU

STO September 25 puts @ 1.90

TRADES:

YETI STO 4/26/19 34.0 CALLS @.60
YETI STO 4/26/19 31.5 PUTS @1.35
YETI STO 4/26/18 32.5 CALL @1.00

MU Bought to close my…

MU Bought to close my April 18th 44 Calls @ 0.49, originaly sold for .10 when MU hit my stop at 44. I was tempted to ignore my stop but I had to be away this morning so as expected came close to top ticking it. Alas. Hang my head in shame.

A TRADE:

AMD STO 4/28/19 27.0 ITM PUTS @.90

TRADES:

YETI STO 4/28/19 32.0 PUTS @1.60
VFF BTO STOCK 12.09

AXP dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .48.

Also looking at a Dub Cal for $HON and a #LongStraddle on $SKX

HON earnings analysis

#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN
April 22, 2016 BO -0.65%

Avg (+ or -) 1.54%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 163.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.33 to 167.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.49 to 165.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 156.84 to 169.16
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 158.81

Open to requests for other symbols.

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%

Avg (+ or -) 16.20%
Bias 1.17%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 35.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.85 to 39.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.50 to 40.90
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.61 to 49.79
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 25.68

Open to requests for other symbols.

AXP earnings analysis

#Earnings $AXP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC +0.99%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +3.78%
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC +5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +9.02% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC +0.90%

Avg (+ or -) 2.99%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 111.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.89 to 115.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 108.17 to 114.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 101.44 to 121.56
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 108.47

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings SKX Jeff-do you have…

#earnings SKX
Jeff-do you have SKX data? Thank you

SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte A little confusing with this being monthly expiration week but Friday a holiday. The monthly options stop trading today at the close and are settled at the open tomorrow. Then the weeklys, that normally settle at Friday’s close, will settle at Thursday’s close. So to get a piece of each series, I sold the monthlys now as a same-day trade, and I’ll sell the weeklys before the close today.

Sold to Open $SPX April 17th (monthlys) 2855/2875-2930/2950 condors for .75. I may look to close today to avoid gap risk. (IV 12.5%, SPX: 2907)

NFLX closed

#Earnings Bought to close $NFLX 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 4.15 and 4.16. Sold yesterday for 8.35. With price at dead center, taking profit and running as NFLX may still move big. Can’t Truss It.

NFLX 1 day trade

Sold $NFLX 4/18 345/335 bull put spread @ 1.40.

Close Early NFLX

#bullputspreads
$NFLX BTC 4/18 310/320 BUPS at .61. STO at 1.70. Prudence reigns. I have several open $NFLX trades.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 17th 2865/2885-2930/2950 condors for .80. (IV: 8.05%, SPX: 2908)

NFLX

BTO IC Apr 18 375/377.5 325/322.5 $1.13
Following DK with this idea for an Earnings trade.

Closing BA BUCS / AMZN BUPS

#bullcallspreads
$BA STC 4/18 370/400 BUCS at 8.50 BTO pre crashes on 3/12 for 15.00

#bullputspreads
$AMZN STO 4/18 1840/1845 at 1.35

NFLX tight condor

#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX Apr 18th 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 8.35.

Risking 1.65 to make 5.00-7.00. Max win is about 8.35 but that’s only if I wait for expiration on Thursday. I’ll look to close this when (and if) stock price gets close enough to my 10-point center range for a profit.

NFLX often gaps big, but then sometimes will fade for the rest of the day (or two days). This is a smaller position as probability is lower and I don’t want to lose the max on a large position.

Rolling AMZN

#shortcalls
$AMZN BTC 4/18 1850 call and STO 4/26 1870 call at added 24.14 credit per contract. These are covered by 4/26 1760 long calls

A TRADE: Strangled it.

VFF STO 4/18/19 10.0 PUTS @.35 Expires Friday.

A TRADE: A goof, because…

A TRADE: A goof, because I’m bored. Stock is down because Citron said it’s going to a dollar.
VFF STO 4/18/19 11.0 CALLS @.55. 2 Days and 2.5 hours to expiration. ;>) Watching.

IBM dub cal

#Earnings Bought to open $IBM Apr18/Apr26 145 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Surprised I was filled below mid price… partial fill, may have to raise bid to fulfill my full position.

This has a 5% average move… tomorrow’s breakevens are showing to be precisely at 5%. So this has an even chance of working, but also an additional day to fade any large move.

A TRADE: Was going to…

A TRADE: Was going to sell the stock, but thought with 2 days to expiration, I’ll try and grab another .45. ;>)

AMD STO 4/18/19 28.0 ATM CALLS @.45 Covered

TRADES:

YETI BTO Several trades avg. @31.67
YETI STO 4/26/18 33.0 CALL @.95 COVERED
YETI STO 3/26/19 33.5 CALL @.85 COVERED

Rolling LABU BURL TNDM

#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 4/18 64 call and STO 4/18 58.5 call at 1.00 credit. Stock at 57.33
$BURL BTC 4/18 160 call and STO 4/26 162.50 call at .11 debit. Stock at 161.83
$TNDM BTC 4/18 65 call and STO 4/26 66 call at 1.30 credit. Stock at 62.52

#Shorcalls Morning Sold MU April…

#Shorcalls Morning Sold MU April 18th 44 Calls for .10.

IBM earnings analysis

#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%

Avg (+ or -) 4.95%
Bias -1.15%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 144.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.68 to 151.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.87 to 151.13
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 131.24 to 156.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 133.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 8.36%
Bias 1.78%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 328.02 to 379.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 324.39 to 383.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 286.67 to 421.33
Based on DOWN max only (-13.1%): 307.56

Open to requests for other symbols.

T Puts / Roll TNDM Puts / SPX Campaign

#shortputs
$T STO 7/19 32 puts at 1.25 Thank you @jeffcp66 for the concept
$TNDM BTC 4/18 68.50 puts and STO 4/25 68.50 puts at .99 credit

#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 4/30 2790/2810/2970/2950 IC for 3.90. Following @jeffcp66
$SPX BTC 4/15 2830/2850/2940/2920 for .85 STO on 4/12 for 1.95 Thank you @jeffcp66

TRADES:

YETI STO 4/18/19 ATM 31.5 PUTS @.90
MDLZ BTO STOCK @50.21

SPX 15-dte

#SPX1dte Sold another roll: $SPX Apr 30th 2790/2810/2950/2970 condors for 3.80. (IV: 10.85% SPX: 2902)

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX April 17th 2725/2750-2940/2965 condors for .50. Sold for 2.85 as a roll on April 1st.

UNH earnings analysis

#Earnings $UNH reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +3.55%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +4.73%
July 17, 2018 BO -2.60% Biggest DOWN
April 17, 2018 BO +3.57%
Jan. 16, 2018 BO +4.28%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +5.53%
July 18, 2017 BO +0.26%
April 18, 2017 BO +0.84%
Jan. 17, 2017 BO -0.70%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +6.90% Biggest UP
July 19, 2016 BO +1.30%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.10%

Avg (+ or -) 3.03%
Bias 2.48%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 227.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 215.83 to 239.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 220.61 to 234.39
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.9%): 211.80 to 243.20
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 221.59

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings #closing DAL April 9,…

#earnings #closing DAL

April 9, sold May 17, 52.50/60 strangle for 1.58, bought today for .98.

LABU

STO September 35 puts @ 3.20

SPX 9-dte

#SPX1-dte Sold $SPX Apr 24th 2900/2875 put spreads for 6.95. Aggressive ATM position in response to minor upside warning that fired Friday. If index has not moved higher by Wednesday, I will consider rolling.
(IV 10%, SPX: 2903)

JNJ earnings analysis

#Earnings $JNJ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 22, 2019 BO -1.44%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +1.94%
July 17, 2018 BO +3.54%
April 17, 2018 BO -0.92%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -4.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +3.43% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 BO +1.74%
April 18, 2017 BO -3.10%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.88%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO -2.59%
July 19, 2016 BO +1.71%
April 19, 2016 BO +1.57%

Avg (+ or -) 2.34%
Bias -0.02%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.62 to 140.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.06 to 139.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.3%): 130.46 to 142.04
Based on DOWN max only (+3.5%): 141.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 15th 2865/2885-2915/2925 condors for 1.00. Expire today (IV: 7.66%, SPX: 2904)

#earnings #closing KR March 6,…

#earnings #closing KR

March 6, sold an April 18, 28 straddle for 2.76, bought today for 2.46.

Minor Upside Warning

#VIXIndicator fired this at the close. Last one we got was on March 13th, and it was good for a 1.75% move up from that day’s close to intraday high 6 days later, before we stalled and pulled back a little.

Have Good WE all

Have Good WE all

PNC up and out

#Earnings I played this one exactly right… slightly bearish lean. Today’s +3.1% day is the highest one-day move up after earnings since January 2013. So, expiring with 3.00 exercise cost, $PNC #IronCondor, sold yesterday for 2.00.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Apr 15th 2850/2830 put spreads and 2920 short calls for 1.40 total. Sold yesterday for 1.25. Leaving the 2940 long calls. Upside warning being reinstated today (VIX lowest since early October) and traded within expected move, so I’m out. May try to sell another same-day on Monday morning. The one from today is expiring:
SPX Apr 12th 2860/2880-2920/2935, sold for .80 this morning.

MSFT

#fuzzy
Apr 18 120/120/119 C/P/P $1.00
EWZ #supercharger
41/34 Apr 18 Puts $.67
RH #supercharger
117/119 Apr 18 Calls $1.05
FB #supercharger
177.5/180.0 Apr 18 Calls $1.36

Looking for 30-50% Profits on these!!

Econ Calendar for week of 4/15/19

Shortened week with Good Friday holiday.

Screen Shot 2019-04-12 at 11.14.05 AM
Screen Shot 2019-04-12 at 11.14.05 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG will call…

#optionsexpiration

#pietrades
EOG will call out today at 97 with cost basis of 96.14
LNG 67 put rolled up to 68 and next week for 0.66 credit. Total credit now 1.22.
TQQQ batch 1 54.5 cc being assigned with cost basis of 56.39 for 1.89 loss. Was a lot worse in Jan.
LNG batch 2 67.5 rolled up to 68 and out to next week for 0.55 credit.
TNA 62.5 put rolled to next week and 65.5 for 0.85 credit

#lizardpies
EXAS is expiring for 0.62 credit per contract. I was trying to close it but the MM are being greedy. The spread on the put is 0-3.90 and they are not moving. I tried to roll/close for 0.2 but no dice. Ok, I will let it expire for full credit and not pay commission.
EXPE 113/130/131 decaying well. 1 more week should be able to close roll at 50%.

Looks like the largest theta decay on some of these OTM strangles/jade lizards occurs from 28 to 14 days. For instance the 113 put on EXPE is going for 1.25, 21 DTE 1 and 14 DTE 0.20. I may start looking at these from 21 or 28 days down to 14 days to recycle capital faster.

CVX

STO September 100 puts @1.40

WFC

STO November 40 puts @1.10

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Since expiration is not until next Friday, I checked 5-day moves and they are slightly bigger than the one-day moves, but not a huge difference.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.28%

Avg (+ or -) 2.69%
Bias 0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.93 to 217.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 201.91 to 213.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 187.70 to 227.30
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 197.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

A TRADE:

YETI BTO STOCK 31.63

EHTH

BTO May 17, 70/80 bull call spread at 3.30 for a very small trade.

SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte Since I sold Monday’s condor yesterday, selling today’s today.
Sold $SPX Apr 12th 2865/2885-2920/2935 condors for .80. Tight leash… if we get a face-blasting rally I’ll back out.

Upside Warning probably reaffirmed

#VIXIndicator With a $VIX close at 13.54 or lower today, a”minor” upside warning will fire, reaffirming market’s upside bias in the absence of any significant pullback materializing. Should mean another leg higher next week.

Rolling BA GOOS Calls / Close T Puts EHTH BUCS BIIB BUPS / Early Assignment BA Put

#longleapss
$BA BTC 4/18 420 call and STO 4/26 390 call at 3.40 credit. These are sold against 1/2020 380 call

#shortcalls
$GOOS BTC 4/12 49 call and STO 4/26 51 call at even. Hope I am not cooking my own you know what.

#shortputs
$T BTC 4/18 31 puts at .05. STO at 1.60 on 1/24. Thank you @jeffcp66

#bucs
$EHTH STC 4/18 55/65 BUCS at 9.30. BTO 3/18 at 4.32

#bups
$BIIB BTC 4/18 215/225 BUPS at .20 STO on 3/27 on a drug test disappointment at 2.65
$BA Had a 400/410 BUPS STO for 2.00 410 assigned today and I just exercised the 400 for the net 8.00 loss

BKNG call spread

Not a typical trade for me, but I’m trying to find some high IV in this environment so I’m doing a small position on this. Sold $BKNG 5/3 (weekly) 1870/1880 bear call spread @ 2.60 credit. The stock did break above the 50 day moving average today but the downtrending 200 day moving average has served as pretty reliable resistance since August. The short strike (delta of 29) is above the 200dma, which is currently around 1862. A couple of notes of caution–I’m guessing on the earnings date since it hasn’t been announced yet officially, using previous reporting dates and market maker options pricing to infer something in the week of the 5/10 expiration so I went with the Friday before. Also, the liquidity on options on this stock is not very good, and especially illiquid in the weekly expirations so another reason to keep this trade small.