LABU NVDA REGN SQ TNA WYNN

#CoveredCalls – Almost done for the day finishing a nice week. Just a bunch of ITM covered calls to roll so the little pullback today is helping.

LABU: Still watching 34 strike today…

NVDA: Completely run over after selling ITM call. Debit roll but gets call to breakeven. I’ll add on a pullback.
Rolled NVDA OCT 18 2019 155.0 Call to DEC 20 2019 160.0 Call @ 2.25 debit

REGN: Another roll after this then the big roll into earnings.
Rolled REGN OCT 18 2019 297.5 Call to OCT 25 2019 300.0 Call @ .95 credit

SQ: Roll into the week before earnings.
Rolled SQ OCT 18 2019 60.0 Calls to NOV 1 2019 61.0 Calls @ .35 credit

TNA: Nicely profitable on these so holding a little longer picking up 1.10 while keeping some protection.
Rolled TNA OCT 18 2019 54.0 Calls to NOV 01 2019 54.5 Calls @ .60 credit

WYNN: Rolled into earnings.
Rolled WYNN OCT 18 2019 105.0 Calls to NOV 08 2019 107.0 Calls @ .10 credit

XBI

#ShortPuts – Nice rally right up to the 50ma. Completely out now but watching for a re-load…

Bought to Close XBI NOV 01 2019 75.0 Put @ .24 (sold for 2.10)
Bought to Close XBI NOV 15 2019 73.0 Put @ .34 (sold for 2.10)

TEAM

BTC $TEAM 135/145 10/25 #BeCs @0.07 STO 10/17 @1.02 as part of a 100/110/135/145 #IC (overall sold @2.05).

ULTA GOOGL BUCS BUPS Closed / NUGT CHWY Puts Rolled / IBM NFLX BUPS

#bucs
$GOOGL STC 10/18 1230/1240 BUCS at 8.49. BTO at 5.32 on 9/24
$ULTA STC 10/18 230/250 BUCS at 16.50. BTO at 9.45 on 9/24

#bups
$GOOGL BTC 10/18 1200/1210 BUPS at .20. STO at 3.30 on 9/18

#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 10/18 31 put and STO 11/1 30 put at added .35 credit.
$CHWY BTC 10/18 28 put and STO 11/1 28 put at added .23 credit.

#bups
$NFLX STO 11/15 265/275 BUPS at 1.60. Thank you @ramie
$IBM STO 11/15 130/135 BUPS at 2.25

HON closed

#Earnings Sold to close $HON Oct18/Oct25 165 #DoubleCalendar for .96. Bought yesterday for .86, so I basically covered commissions. Now it has pulled back and better profit is available. But that’s three calendars in one day… one breakeven, one 50% winner, one double+.

#earnings #closing FDX Sept. 17…

#earnings #closing FDX

Sept. 17 sold an Oct. 18, 150/190 call, FDX went down down down, ended up with a Nov. 15 straddle, closed today for a small gain as FDX has worked its way to 151.

#callratiospread GLD #tastytradefollow Sold Dec….

#callratiospread GLD

#tastytradefollow Sold Dec. 20 long 142/short 145/short 145 ratio spread for 1.06

ISRG Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – Going back into this one with the lizard and adding a protective put in case it pulls an “ULTA”. Need a down move anywhere inside the expected move with no upside risk.

Sold ISRG OCT 18 2019 460.0/505.0/530.0/535.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.25

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 18th (Friday PM) 2950/2960-3025/3035 condors for .45. 10-wide, double size. IV 9.42%, SPX 2997.

MAN earnings analysis

#Earnings $MAN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 19, 2019 BO +0.03%
April 18, 2019 BO +11.60% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +3.95%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -3.77%
July 20, 2018 BO +0.52%
April 20, 2018 BO -14.48% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 2, 2018 BO -7.35%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +0.04%
July 24, 2017 BO -8.96%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.89%
Jan. 31, 2017 BO +0.84%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +9.71%

Avg (+ or -) 5.35%
Bias -0.90%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 85.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 80.84 to 90.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 80.93 to 90.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 73.12 to 97.88
Based on UP max only (+11.6%): 95.42

Open to requests for other symbols.

TEAM earnings analysis

#Earnings $TEAM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2019 AC +8.57%
April 17, 2019 AC -8.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -2.42%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -14.29% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +10.48%
April 19, 2018 AC -6.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -4.55%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +24.64% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.18%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.01%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.22%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -3.92%

Avg (+ or -) 7.59%
Bias 0.56%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 122.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.00 to 132.00
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 112.74 to 131.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.6%): 91.94 to 152.06
Based on DOWN max only (-14.3%): 104.57

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

CMG

BTC $CMG 790/800 10/18/2019 #BuPS @0.14. Was STO 10/10 @1.5.

URI closed

#Earnings . Sold to close $URI Oct18/Oct25 122p/123p #DoubleCalendar for 1.55. Possible to get over 2.00 now. Bought yesterday for .97 – 1.05.

NFLX

BTC $NFLX 315/325 #BeCS @0.10. Was STO 10/7 @1.05. Only partial fill so far.
Holding, though expecting to expire $NFLX 10/18/2019 225/235 #BuPS which was STO 10/3 @ 1.56.

Closing ROKU

Bought to close $ROKU 10/18 130/140/155/165 iron condor @ 3.73. Overall profit on rolled/adjusted position:
-Original sale 9/20 170/180 BeCS @ 2.82
-Rolled 9/20 170/180 BeCS out to 10/18 130/140/180/190 iron condor @ .54 credit
-Rolled 9/20 170/180 BeCS down to 155/165 BeCS @ 1.37 credit
Total credit taken in: 4.73
Debit to close: 3.73
Profit: 1.00

I was running out of time (as of Monday was looking at a full loss on the put spread side) but the move up over the last couple of days has helped this position. Been on the wrong end of strong moves enough times so I’ll take this one and move on.

XBI

#ShortPuts – Nice recovery in this thing…

Bought to Close XBI OCT 18 2019 78.0 Puts @ .09 (sold for 1.55)

#earnings #closing URI HON URI…

#earnings #closing URI HON
URI #shortstrangles Sold Nov. 15, 105/140 for 2.08, bought today for 1.00
URI #doublecalendar Following Jeff-bought double calendar for 1.00, sold today for 1.62
HON #doublecalendar Following Jeff-bought double calendar for .89, sold today for 1.21
Thank you Jeff for the data and trade ideas

NFLX put spread

Sold $NFLX 11/15 275/265 bull put spread @ 1.72

URI

#ShortPuts – Not an earnings trade but still gotta book for an overnight gain. This filled immediately and I had placed the order a dime under the mid. Might be able to do even better.

Bought to Close URI NOV 22 2019 112.0 Put @ .90 (sold for 2.65)

TSLA

STO $TSLA 300/310 Nov 15 2019 #BeCS @1.21

SOXL

#ShortPuts – Just a small one taking off 30 days early…

Bought to Close SOXL NOV 15 2019 100.0 Put @ .30 (sold fat finger for 2.80)

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Completely out of Nov call spreads now. Will be looking to add to Dec and start Jan on next spike…

Bought to Close UVXY NOV 15 2019 37.0/47.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .15 (sold for 1.60 average)
Bought to Close UVXY NOV 15 2019 35.0/45.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .18 (sold for 1.30 average)

Closing NUGT

Bought to close 10/18 27 calls @ .96 (sold for 5.07 on 9/16). This was a rollout from 9/20 26 calls. Overall profit .74.

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – OK…I’m really done now. Full position.

Sold DRIP DEC 20 2019 130.0/140.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.50

NFLX dub cal closed

#Earnings Sold to close $NFLX Oct18/Oct25 285 #DoubleCalendar for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.37. You will be able to get more if price continued to drop toward the strike.

NFLX short calls

Sold $NFLX 11/15 340 calls @ 1.30. Covered (against long stock).

ISRG earnings analysis

#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 18, 2019 AC -1.45%
April 18, 2019 AC -7.00% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56%

Avg (+ or -) 4.33%
Bias -0.49%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 535.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 512.55 to 557.45
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 511.85 to 558.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 491.29 to 578.71
Based on DOWN max only (-7.0%): 497.55

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings #closing NFLX Yesterday sold…

#earnings #closing NFLX

Yesterday sold Oct. 18, 300/310/310/325 for 1.25, sold for 124 at the open.
This was a Fauzia trade for those who follow TastyTrade

$NFLX Earnings

Netflix EPS beats by $0.42, revenue in-line

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX): Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.47 beats by $0.42.

Revenue of $5.25B (+31.3% Y/Y) in-line.

Global streaming paid memberships 158.33M (+21.4% Y/Y), net addition 6.77M

MTN BUPS Closed

#bups
$MTN BTC 10/18 220/230 at 1.70. STO at 3.50

Upside Warning

#VIXindicator An inside day on the VIX chart is the third close below 15.05 in a row, meaning an Upside Warning is in effect. Look for higher prices in the coming days. I’m proceeding cautiously after last month’s headfake. I only have one bullish trade (put spread sold this morning).

Expiring today: $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors sold yesterday for .45.

MEI

#coveredcalls

BTC 10/18/2019 35 calls @0.08. Stock is at 34.05.

#earnings NFLX #tastytradefollow #callbutterfly Sold…

#earnings NFLX
#tastytradefollow #callbutterfly
Sold Oct. 18, 300/310/310/325 for 1.25

URI

#ShortPuts – Not really an earnings trade but I’ll take a shot. Maybe add another on an implosion…

Sold URI NOV 22 2019 112.0 Put @ 2.65

Bistro problems

I have experienced some issues in the past weeks with Options Bistro log in as well.

The first steps to follow are:
Close your browser.
Reopen it.
Go to wordpress.com
Log in.
Leave the window open and open a new browser window or tab
Go to OptionsBistro.com.
Refresh the page.

If that doesn’t work you’ll need to clear the browser cache. Follow these instructions.
https://en.support.wordpress.com/browser-issues/#clearing-your-browser-cache

Please reply in the comments here if any of the above resolves your issues.

#Welcome

HON earnings analysis

#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 18, 2019 BO +3.11%
April 18, 2019 BO +3.78% Biggest UP (tie)
Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10% Biggest DOWN (also the ONLY down)
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP (tie)
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%

Avg (+ or -) 1.84%
Bias 1.66%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.36 to 169.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 160.98 to 167.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 157.80 to 170.20
Based on DOWN max only (-1.1%): 162.20

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#earnings URI Sold Nov. 15,…

#earnings URI

Sold Nov. 15, 105/140 strangle for 2.08.
Thanks Jeff

URI dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $URI Oct18/Oct25 122p/123c #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Not filled on all yet. Got one for .97 on TOS.

URI earnings analysis

#Earnings $URI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 17, 2019 AC -7.89%
April 17, 2019 AC +8.14%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +6.29%
Oct. 17, 2018 AC -15.03% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 18, 2018 AC -6.54%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -1.94%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC +0.05%
July 19, 2017 AC +3.23%
April 19, 2017 AC -5.19%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +11.20% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +4.69%

Avg (+ or -) 5.94%
Bias -0.16%, no signoficant bias on earnings.

With stock at 123.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 114.43 to 131.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 115.70 to 130.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.0%): 104.51 to 141.49
Based on UP max only (+11.2%): 136.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

SHOP

#CoveredCalls – Rolling into #Earnings week…

Rolled SHOP OCT 18 2019 297.5 Call to NOV 01 2019 302.5 Call @ .70 credit

UNH

STO December 230 puts at 6.50

FDX

BTC the October 18, 150 puts at .85 which was part of an earnings trade at .88 cents. It was part of a jade lizard and am happy to be out of that one.

IBM earnings analysis

#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 17, 2019 AC +4.58%
April 16, 2019 AC -4.15%
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%

Avg (+ or -) 5.20%
Bias -0.63%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 142.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.06 to 148.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.61 to 149.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 129.42 to 154.58
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 131.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX Monday

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950 put spreads for 4.90. IV: 11.44%, SPX 2990. Bullish positioning following both trend and #VIXindicator.

#earnings #closing GS UAL GS…

#earnings #closing GS UAL
GS Monday sold Nov. 15 jade lizard for 5.01 and bought an Oct. 15 long put for .70. Yesterday sold the long put for .88. Today bought the jade lizard for 4.41
UAL Yesterday sold a Nov. 15, 82.50/95 strangle for 1.83, bought today for 1.18.
Thank for the data Jeff

NFLX dub cal

#Earnings Bought to open $NFLX Oct18/Oct25 285 #DoubleCalendar for 1.37. This stock has typically been too volatile after earnings to be appropriate for this strategy. But two things: NFLX post-earnings moves have quieted in the last couple years, and the Dub-Cals perform well with higher priced stocks.

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 7.16%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 285.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 257.13 to 312.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.61 to 305.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 230.79 to 339.21
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 255.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

Stuff this week

Screen Shot 2019-10-15 at 12.49.13 PM
Screen Shot 2019-10-15 at 12.49.13 PM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=10&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors for .45. 10-wide, double size.
IV 10.34%, SPX 2998.

Closing SPX iron condors

Bought to close Oct 21 2920/2895 put spread + 3035/3060 call spread @ 3.15. Sold for 7.40 on 10/11.
Bought to close Oct 23 2910/2885 put spread + 3045/3070 call spread @ 3.20. Sold for 7.00 on 10/11.

Whiz update

Take it for what it’s worth (free) but it is a nice look at some of the issues simmering below the headlines.

NUGT closed

#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Jan 2020 55 calls for .54. Sold for 3.20 on July 18th.

SOXL

#ShortPuts – Another one bites the dust…

Bought to Close SOXL OCT 18 2019 150.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 5.00)

SPY

#ShortPuts – Back at the 3000 level so buying all my SPY back in…

Bought to Close SPY NOV 15 2019 275.0 Put @ .46 (sold for 3.35)
Bought to Close SPY DEC 20 2019 260.0 Put @ .83 (sold for 3.20)

VXX

STC 2x Jan 20 20.00 for $2.03
total profit on this group $425.00

Thanks Jeff

UAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2019 AC +0.91%
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%

Avg (+ or -) 5.49%
Bias -0.17%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.43 to 91.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 82.69 to 92.31
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 76.94 to 98.06
Based on UP max only (+8.8%): 95.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

NVDA

#ShortPuts – Out a week early. Wouldn’t mind a pullback before earnings now…

Bought to Close NVDA OCT 25 2019 162.5 Put @ .10 (sold for 2.45)

#SueCollar Here’s a new one…

#SueCollar

Here’s a new one I just added, this one has less than zero risk at the onset–it’s hard to get this design but I really like it, call premium is elevated due to earnings the week before. Notice the tight put, less than $2 away from stock purchase price, at close to 1/3rd the call premium. Good risk control here. The put roll might be tricky though with earnings looming in the new roll cycle, but we’ll deal with that the week of Nov 8, if not sooner.

TGT
Bought 300 shares @ 111.84
Bought 3 Nov 8 110 put @ 1.65
Sold 3 Nov 29 112 Call @ 4.70

Initial max risk is -$363, meaning I make $363 on a crash in the initial timeframe (Nov 8 expiration).
Earnings 11/20, Ex div 11/19
update: one thing though, the delta on this is only 36 on 300 shares, that’s usually lower than I like, I like around 25-30% delta. I can always sell some put spreads to bump up the delta if I want.

Downside Warning canceled

#VIX indicator Well, so much for that. The VIX close today cancels the Downside Warning and we may be on the way to another Upside Warning. Let’s hope the signals work on the next round.

$SPX Closed Early / GLOB Put / HIIQ Calls Rolled

#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 10/21 3035/3060 BECS at .60. STO 10/11 at 4.72. Thank you @Ramie. The put side of the IC still open.

#shortputs
$GLOB STO 11/15 90 put at 2.80. Tip of the hat to @Ramie

#shortcalls
$HIIQ BTC 11/15 28 calls and STO 12/20 30 calls for added .15 debit.. Since September it has cost me $1.65 to roll from $20 covered call to current $30 covered call. Stock appears headed up. Stock now at 26.78.

NUGT, UVXY, SPLK and SPX 1-DTE

BTC UVXY 10/18/2019 35/45 Nov 15 2019 #BeCS @0.4. Was STO 10/2 @1.65.

BTC SPLK 10/18/2019 105/115 #BuPS @0.35. This had been rolled from the Sept earnings trade. ~$1.20/share gain (though I don’t have my tracking spreadsheet in front of me at the moment)

BTC NUGT 10/18/2019 20/29.5 #BuPS @1.95. Basically break-even, but this was the second round on a double-dip.

Wanted to take some risk off today. Been thinking over Friday’s SPX 1-DTE trade a bunch over the weekend. Short version, my stops triggered, as Jeff’s did, but I didn’t get fills. I canceled the BTC order, and then spent the day sweating it out, hoping for a pullback to get out of the position, which didn’t happen until the last 15 minutes of the trading day. My position expired valueless over the weekend, but being frank, could just as easily have been a big loss, if SPX had swung ~15 up instead of ~15 down. Pretty much dumb luck, not smart trading. Really don’t know what I was thinking, if I was thinking at all, when I canceled the BTC order. Hope and Luck aren’t smart trading. I’m also going to put a pause on the SPX 1-DTE trades for a while.

#closing DUST In July I…

#closing DUST
In July I sold a couple 9 puts after DUST had dropped to around 12 from around 25. Dust kept going down into the 5s while I kept rolling the puts. I closed them today for a $35 loss, not bad given where it was.

GLOB

STO November 15, 90 puts @ 2.75, stock is at 99

#earnings #jadelizard GS Jade lizard…

#earnings #jadelizard GS
Jade lizard with downside protection. Sold Nov. 15, 195 short put/205 short call/210 long call for 5.01. Bought Oct. 15, 195 put for .70.
Thanks for the data Jeff

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%

Avg (+ or -) 2.88%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 205.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.11 to 211.89
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 199.10 to 210.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 185.44 to 224.56
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 195.34

I’m getting on a plane so won’t be able to do any others today; back tomorrow. Happy trading!

#shortcallspreads SPY Call me crazy,…

#shortcallspreads SPY

Call me crazy, sold a Nov. 15, 306/311 call spread for .90.

UVXY

#ShortPuts – I’m finding these act as a nice hedge on down days but easy to keep rolling lower for eventual profit. Sold against a bunch of call spreads…

Rolled UVXY OCT 11 2019 27.5 Puts to OCT 25 2019 26.5 Puts @ .17 credit
Rolled UVXY OCT 11 2019 26.5 Puts to OCT 25 2019 25.0 Puts @ .10 credit

ULTA

#CoveredCalls – Easing it up a little…

Rolled ULTA OCT 11 2019 237.5 Call to OCT 25 2019 240.0 Call @ .45 credit (3.25 total now)

REGN

#CoveredCalls – Rolling and keeping a little downside protection. Could be another fake out on the breakout. Wild ride last two weeks! Should get two more regular rolls and then the third into earnings…

Rolled REGN OCT 11 2019 295.0 Call to OCT 18 2019 297.5 Call @ .65 credit (8.40 total now)

SPX Iron Condor

Sold Oct 21 2920/2895 put spread + 3035/3060 call spread @ 7.40.
Short put and call deltas are 20 and 21.
Call spread is above the all time high in SPX.

LULU

BTC $LULU 175/185 Oct 18 #BuPS @0.14. Was STO Sept 30 @1.45.

#closing #shortstrangles DD August 9…

#closing #shortstrangles DD

August 9 I sold a Sept. 20, 65/77.50 strangle so DD headed south. I rolled the call down into an inversion, rolled the inversion to Oct. 25. I was able to close today with a $104.00 gain, more than I would have taken out of the strangle, but with consternation costs.

#SueCollar Good morning lovlies, TGIF!…

#SueCollar
Good morning lovlies, TGIF! I thought I’d start posting a little again on my collar strategy. Life has been hectic, March 1 I executed on a move to Iowa, regretted the house purchase from the first minute I took possession. Regretted being in Iowa at all. Desperately missed the mountains. Aug 30 executed a move back to Colo, without selling the Iowa house. I’m finally settled back in Colo, though still trying to sell Iowa. I am SO HAPPY to breathe Colorado air again.

So…re trading. I started doing 13-week Tbills over a year ago. The T-bills made me realize that as I’m older, I have less appetite for risk. They also taught me patience. I would make (risk free and state-tax free) as much in 13 weeks as a 1-week Jade Lizard can turn over. But, with a ladder, the risk-free money was rolling in every week. The T-bill rate hit a high last December then started dropping. Once it got close to 2% I realized I needed a new low risk strategy.

So I went back to the #collars . This is a slow, steady, low volatility, limited risk strategy. My goal is to net out about 3-to-6 times the Tbill rate. So 6 to 12% a year. The return-on-risk is much higher, around 50-100% due to risk being so controlled.

I have a very specific process I follow that seems to be working well, that’s why I’ll call it #SueCollars
I use the term “collar” pretty generically. Some would call this “married puts.” I also call it a “rev con” (Reverse Conversion). To me they are all interchangeable. The premise being that there is a stock position, a short call, and a protective put.

My process is 1. Buy stock (I have a tight list of high yielding stocks with good balance sheets—I’m limiting buys right now to PEP, WMT, VZ, CMCSA, CSCO, EBAY, AMD, INTC, BX, MSFT, TGT, UPS, JPM, TGT). I also size every buy for the same amount of stock risk, i.e. all of them around $30K in stock for example. That way capital allocation across tickers is roughly equal.
2. Sell ATM calls around 45 days out. Collect the max you can
3. Buy OTM put 22 days out, targeting 1/3rd of the premium collected on the calls for the buy-price. The thought being that the calls can finance a couple rounds of puts, with enough left over on calls for net profit.

Here is a trade I put on today in CMCSA:
1. Bought 600 shares @ 45.02
2. Sold Nov 22 45 call @1.46 x6
3. Bought Nov 1 43 put @ .46 x 6
Net delta is 145 on 600 shares….so it’s still a bullish trade, but look at all that risk control! Risk is reduced by 75% (obviously any time risk is reduced, profitability is reduced, but remember my benchmark is the 13 week t-bills).

At the outset my max risk on this trade is $612 if there’s a crash. I calculate max risk this way: (600 * 45.02)-(43*600)+(.46*600)-(1.46*600). Basically (stock risk) less (put protection) plus (put cost) less (call premium). Max gain on this trade is $590.88. Roughly with dividends this can yield about 10% a year with pretty good risk control.

There’s a lot of nuance with this trade that I’ll try to capture
–Most people do shorter dated short calls and longer dated puts, I found the opposite works well to finance the puts. On a down swing, the shorter dated puts are a gamma play, they can just explode in value, and longer dated calls very quickly decay, so it’s very nice for collecting realized gains.
–When the protective puts at least double in value (sometimes I can get 7x on them) then I’ll roll everything down. I’ll take profits on the puts and short calls, roll calls to a new 45 DTE ATM and buy new puts. On a big downdraft it’s hard to get new puts at 1/3rd the call value, since these are strong companies I’ll do a very wide put spread to reach the price target. On a bounce it’s easy to buy back the short put and re-establish the full put protection. These rolldowns really do a lot to keep pace with the stock decline.
–A lot of these stocks run up into ex-div and it can be hard to hold the shares. The big thing to always remember with ex div approaching…you CAN be ITM on short calls into ex-div as long as EXTRINSIC IS MORE THAN THE DIV. People tend to freak about ex div and ITM short calls, but it’s an easy rule to remember. I’ve found placing the short calls a couple weeks later than ex div can really help with holding the shares through ex div to collect the dividend. VZ has always been tricky to hold into ex div.
–Once the extrinsic is all gone on short calls I used to self-assign on these to avoid assignment fees….but all that is gone now w/ TDA, no more assignment fees!
–On ITM short calls with no remaining extrinsic, sometimes I’ll roll them up (debit roll) but mostly I take the profits and wait for a down day to re-establish positions.
–I love Fuzzie’s approach of using short puts to re-establish after losing a covered call position but mostly I just re-establish with new stock positions since I’m all about risk control on these.

I’ll keep posting updates on this, and when new positions are established.
Everyone have a safe weekend.

Sue

DRIP

Whiz was predicting an Iran attack but I’ll take this. Serves the same purpose…

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Saudi-Revenge-Iran-Reports-Oil-Tanker-Explosion.html

/ES Lottery Ticket

#Futures – Just for fun rolling profits and going inverted for the weekend.

Sold to Close /ES NOV 19 (Wk3) 3100.00 Call @ 4.20 (bought for 2.40)

Then:

Bought to Open /ES NOV 19 (Wk3) 2600.00 Put @ 2.95