#SPX1dte closed last batch for .35. Definitely missed my chances for higher profit, but still another win. It will be interesting to see how this will work on a flat day. It will be a losing trade, but will be able to recoup some of the debit in the morning as put premium is usually still hanging on.
Condors bought Friday for .70. Sold today for 1.20, avg price.
If anyone is bored…LOL
https://go.topgunoptions.com/ft
#Earnings $GLW reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday.
Tue 10/23/2018 BO -0.45%
Wed 07/25/2018 BO +12.44% Biggest UP
Tue 04/24/2018 BO -0.99%
Tue 01/30/2018 BO -8.68%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO +5.01%
Wed 07/26/2017 BO -8.96%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO +4.83%
Tue 01/24/2017 BO +7.71%
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -5.06%
Wed 07/27/2016 BO +2.34%
Tue 04/26/2016 BO -10.96% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/26/2016 BO +11.03%
Avg (+ or -) 6.54%
Bias 0.69%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 30.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 28.33 to 32.27
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.32 to 32.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 26.53 to 34.07
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings GLW
Jeff-do you have GLW data? Thanks
Converted SPX Jan28 2625/2620 put side to Jan28 2630/2625/2620 fly @ 1.55. With credit received on IC, net debit is 1.05 per lot x6. This either locks in a loss or a possible profit if SPX closes between 2625 and 2630. Decision made on breach of 2625 level and then waited for bounce to enter.
Defending every other trade is getting old so will probably stay on sidelines or use long ICs as @jeffcp66 is doing. All depends on the HV/IV ratio on SPX after today.
#Earnings $BIIB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday.
Tue 10/23/2018 BO -4.87%
Tue 07/24/2018 BO -4.95%
Tue 04/24/2018 BO +6.75%
Thu 01/25/2018 BO +3.46%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO -6.33% Biggest DOWN
Tue 07/25/2017 BO +0.96%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO -2.04%
Thu 01/26/2017 BO +1.03%
Wed 10/26/2016 AC -5.49%
Thu 07/21/2016 BO +9.50% Biggest UP
Thu 04/21/2016 BO +7.13%
Wed 01/27/2016 BO +5.07%
Avg (+ or -) 4.80%
Bias 0.85%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 333.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 316.16 to 349.84
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 317.02 to 348.98
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 301.37 to 364.64
Open for requests on other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold a third of the $SPX Jan 28th 2620/2600 put spreads for 2.00. Condors bought for .70 on Friday.
#earnings
$WYNN STO 2/1 116 puts at 3.90 Earnings 1/30
#bullcallspreads
$OKTA BTO 5/17 75/90 BUCS @6.40 Thank you @jsd501
#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX Jan 28th 2600/2620-2700/2720 iron condors for .70.
Filled after bell, Jan28th IV only 8.7%; expected move 18.77. HV still above IV, but dropping. ATR 43.35.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #Assignment #Dividends
Sold to close $INTC Feb 1st 50 put for 3.20. Will be assigned long stock for 50.00. Add .54 for calendar purchase, subtract 3.20 from put sale, cost basis 47.34.
Will sell calls and hang on to stock for at least one dividend round.
#coveredcallcampaign AAPL
Rolled Jan. 25, 160 call to Feb. 1 for 2.82. My cost basis on these assigned shares is 156.99 and I don’t want them anymore so if AAPL blows through earnings next week I’ll be happy as I have another lot , uncovered at a little higher basis.
#SPX1dte Was hoping gov’t reopening might give us a final spike, but the spike was in the wrong direction.
Closed last batch of $SPX call spreads for 1.00. Bought for .70, closed for 1.62 avg price.
#earnings #doublecalendar INTC CL
INTC I rolled the Jan. 25, 50 short put to March 15, 50 for .75, the short call will expire out of the money today. I’ll see what happens with the longs on Monday
CL I have the in the money 60 call and none of them have traded today, including, and especially, my attempts. I’ll take the short shares and see what happens on Monday, otherwise would be a push. I’m new to these types of trades and open to other ideas.
Trump scheduled to speak soon, expected to announce a deal to (at least temporarily) re-open government.
Sold SPY Feb15 255/253 BuPS @ .20 x2 to start third step of SPY 21dte IC ladder strat. Will add call side before the close.
Sold SPY Feb15 276/278 BeCS @ .24 x2 to complete the IC.
#spycraft
BIG WEEK:
*GDP Wednesday at 8:30am ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement, Wednesday 2pm ET
*January Jobs Report, Friday 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=28&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
Sold SPX Jan28 2625/2620 BuPS @ .25 x6 in two accounts. The ES appears to be finding a new higher range in which to bounce around.:-)
Sold SPX Jan28 2700/2705 @.30 x6 to complete the IC.
#spx1-dte
#Earnings A few that were added late and just updated on the chart:
ILMN and AMD next Tuesday, Jan 29th, after market.
TSLA next Wednesday, Jan 30th, after market.
#Earnings $CAT reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire next Friday.
Tue 10/23/2018 BO -10.61% Biggest DOWN
Mon 07/30/2018 BO -2.82%
Tue 04/24/2018 BO -6.02%
Thu 01/25/2018 BO -3.42%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO +4.66%
Tue 07/25/2017 BO +5.47%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO +5.62%
Thu 01/26/2017 BO -1.38%
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -2.45%
Tue 07/26/2016 BO +5.17%
Fri 04/22/2016 BO -1.28%
Thu 01/28/2016 BO +7.51% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.70%
Bias 0.04%, no directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 135.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 127.97 to 143.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.37 to 142.13
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.6%): 121.35 to 150.15
Open for requests on other symbols.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
I played this one badly this week. I had rolled last week to ITM Feb 1st 67 calls. I had the chance Tuesday to close for a profit with the pull back all the way down below 68. But I foolishly went by sentiment rather than reality: I thought weakness would continue through the week. That’s what I “thought”. In reality, it was simply a must-exit opportunity. Sold the calls for 5.75… could have exited for less than 3.00.
Now, they’re going for 10.50 as SQ resumes its strong rally.
Lesson learned. When ITM on calls, take any opportunity to exit. Don’t wait for a .30 exit.
#fuzzy
WDC 40/40 rolled out 7 DTE for 0.45 credit. cb now 18.04.
#pietrades
AMAT 7 DTE 39 puts sold for 0.71 credit. Cb 38.29 if assigned. Smaller account so only 3 contracts.
Hoping the bottom on the chip sector holds but will roll or take assignment if not, true PIE style.
Holding on further #spycraft at the moment until we figure out the best defense, market is moving more than the options are priced for.
#ShortPuts – This is a little bit of a gamble since there are conflicting reports of an earnings date. I think it’ll be the following week so selling this. This would add to a stock position going into earnings with great call premium available…
Sold NVDA Feb 08 2019 145.0 Put @ 2.51
#bearcallspreads
STO Feb 1 2019 42.50/45 BeCS @ 1.10 with stock at 43.30.
Expecting STX to come back down some prior to earnings on Feb 5.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to Close $ETFC Jan25/Feb01 50 dbl cal for .50. Bought for .52 yesterday, so bitty loss.
Will include other closures in comments.
#shortputs SLB
January 17, sold Feb. 15, 40 put for 1.21, bought today for .18.
#shortputs
BTC WDC Feb 1 2019 33.0 put @ 0.05. Sold 2 days ago for 0.50.
#SPX1dte Sold to close another third of $SPX Jan 25th 2765/2695 long call spreads for 2.25. Now profitable in all accounts. Waiting to watch action to sell last batch.
Converted SPX Jan25 call spread to fly 2675/2680/2685 for .85 debit (net cost of .30 per lot). This locks in a loss of $360 across two accounts unless price goes above 2675 before the close.
On a positive note, I reduced risk from $5280 to $360 on 12 lots.
#spx1-dte
#Welcome I usually have all comments show up automatically under Bistro posts. But occasionally they’ll stop showing and it will display “Show Comments”, and I’ll need to click that to reveal comments.
This means you need to remove website data. On a Mac with Safari:
–> navigate to Safari > Preferences >Privacy> Manage Website Data. Search for WordPress.com and then Remove. Next, search for OptionsBistro.com and Remove again.
You then may need to re-log-in to WordPress, but this should fix the issue.
Not sure how to do this on a PC, but basically you are removing cookies and website data for WordPress and OptionsBistro.
closed Dbl Cal on open $0.91 cost 0.036
#SPX1dte Filled on an order I put in for overnight swings.
Sold partial position, $SPX Jan 25th 2675/2695 call spreads for 1.60. Condors bought for .70 last night.
That covers cost of trade on some accounts (where I closed half) and most of the cost on other accounts (where I closed a third). Will look for a higher move to close the remainder.
#earnings
$AMD STO 2/1 20 put at 1.05
#bullputspreads
$SQ STO 2/15 65/70 BUPS at 1.20
#SPX1dte First time I’m altering this… SPX IV on tomorrow’s expiration is only 13% (in December, 1-day IV was between 21-33 all month). Historical Vol is running much higher than Implied Vol (daily chart), meaning options are underpriced. Daily ATR(14) is at 44.37, which is far above the 2018 average, even including Febd thru April.
On most days, my strikes will NOT be breached. But intraday swings will produce profitable exit opportunities. And on the days the strikes WILL be breached, profit can be 10x-20x, allowing me plenty of days that can result in losses. Also let’s me sleep easier knowing my losses are capped at the purchase price.
So, I’m developing a system to determine which conditions are best for switching from selling to buying. I believe the volatility levels described above are a sweet spot.
Bought to open $SPX Jan 25th 2570/2590-2675/2695 iron condors for .70.
Exit plan is to sell half (or a third) at first opportunity of swing, then hold the remainder for follow through.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar $CL average move 2.43%
Bought $CL Jan25/Feb01 62 double calendars for .36 (remarkable fill for such wide bid/ask spread)
Bought $INTC Jan25/Feb01 50 double calendars for .54
Bought $ETFC Jan25/Feb01 50 double calendars for .52
#shortstock MO
Bought to cover 100 short shares for 42.71, sold short yesterday for 44.71
Sold (technically bought) a Feb. 15 39/40/40/42 call butterfly for .35. This is profitable if WDC goes down. WDC hasn’t been kind to #fallingknife traders as it was a little over 100 almost a year ago, now about 40. I have 100 assigned shares at a cost basis of 68, and have a short April 55 put that has been rolled a couple times. The call butterfly will ease the pain a little if it goes down.
Thanks for the info Jeff.
Obviously what I have been doing the last 4 months has not been working. Hit all time low balance again Jan. 4 this year. So I am going back to what works and has been proven through several market cycles and rebuilding the equity curve. At least last month have recovered and higher than the Feb. 6, 2018 SVXY losses and lowest balance from then.
So I am clearing out losing trades, closing a bunch of #fuzzy, some at profit, some at loss, and re-deploying capital. My trading will mostly consist of #pietrades, #lizardpies, #spycraft and the occasional directional play/scalp and a few #fuzzy
Some closings today, but have 2 more weeks to clear out the primary account.
#fuzzy
EOG 110/110 closed for 5.16 loss per contract. It is so far ITM can’t get decent premiums anymore. My intial loss was 17 so this tactic works.
EXPE closed the back ratio credit spreads, left with 120/120 and 125/126. This is sitting on a profit and will close it over the next 2 weeks as the shorts expire. Cb 9.43 and right now can close for min. 11.45. another week of decay that will be better. Lost $600 on the credit spreads after butterflying to control risk (could have been 2000).
MU 35/35 now ITM Cb 14.80 and will roll next week.
WDC 40/40 cb 18.49 and waiting for the short to implode after earnings today.
XBI 80/80 cb 13.97
LNG 50/60 rolled 15 DTE for 0.5 credit for 13.56 cb.
GILD 67.5/69 rolled 15 DTE for 1.3 credit. Cb 7.60
#pietrades and #lizardpies
XBI 78 put 82/82.5c 8 DTE for 1.26 credit
TQQQ 50 CC rolled out 15 DTE for 0.45 credit. CB 57.56 so will manage aggressively
TQQQ 50 cc lot 2 cb 57.30 same
LNG STO the 8 DTE 63 put for 0.92. CB 62.08 if assigned. LNG is my best performer for the year so far 🙂
#spycraft
Batch 1 closed for a $214 loss after the back ratio adjustment did not work. SPY reversed.
Batch 2 closed for a $344 profit, but only because tradestation messed up and sold 20 contracts of the put side instead of 10 so even with the back ratio that did not work I made a few $. Now I am on hold in this account until tomorrow. Tradestation does not give you credit for closed trades until after midnight so I only have $614 buying power in this account until tomorrow morning. Another reason I prefer TOS over TS.
What I have learned most recently.
#fuzzy works well but I think the real value of them is to close them once you have a profit. The EOG trade would have worked if I had just closed it early. If you still like the trade, reset the strike prices. I will use these as shorter term trades out 1 week or a month, take my profit and reset. Commissions are cheap enough to do that most of the time. A 6 % return in one month and then resetting is 96% annualized. Instead of trying to take the cost basis to zero will just take profit and reset. Will probably just use a 90 day option for the long side.
#spycraft
I think the best adjustment when the short strike is challenged is to butterfly it. You can set a defined p/l by broken winging it and skewing it if you have a bias. Just to stop losing can simply butterfly it. Seems to be the cheapest way to do it and least affected if it reverses. Yes you may lock in a loss, but much better than a full loss on the credit spread.
#pietrades and #lizardpies
Upside directional bias set it up as a synthetic long.
No directional bias, set up as a straddle jade lizard.
Downside directional bias set it up as a strangle jade lizard.
But I think setting it up as a jade lizard initially gives more flexibility in managing because of the extra credit. I will be doing A LOT more of these.
Can also leg in and out depending on how the stock moves.
Pouring here so going to work out in my garage gym. First bike race is in 8 weeks so need to lose 10 pounds and make friends with my fast again 🙂
Hope everyone has a good expiration!
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Starter position a little early. Earnings on the morning of the 30th…
Sold T Feb 01 2019 31.0 Puts @ .79
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41% Biggest UP
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
April 28, 2016 AC -11.28%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC +5.01%
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias -4.38%, significant negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.81 to 43.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 37.17 to 42.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 32.73 to 47.27
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
July 19, 2016 AC +4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC +3.34%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC +1.89%
Avg (+ or -) 4.12%
Bias 1.36%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 530.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 506.06 to 553.94
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 508.18 to 551.82
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 486.70 to 573.30
Open for requests on other symbols.
Sold SPX Jan25 2680/2685 call credit spread @ .30 x 12 @ 7:36 am.
Tide agreement on 5 min and 30 min. Waiting for tide reversal to sell put credit spread.
Sold SPX Jan25 2595/2590 put credit spread @ .25x 12 @ 8:25 am to complete the IC.
Breakout on 5 min chart, down signal ghosted out on 30 min chart. Not the best entry but following my rules.
With defense, trade closed for $420 loss on 12 lots. If the regular profit on one of these trades exceeds the loss on a defended trade, I’m good with that. On to the next SPX 1-dte IC.
SPX Jan23 IC 2595/2600/2680/2685 Put/Call expired. Sold 6 lots at .45 yesterday, 4 in one account and 2 in another. After two harrowing days of defending ICs that breached or nearly breached the short side, today’s closing risk profile was gratifying.
#spx1dte
#ShortPuts
Sold WDC Feb 01 2019 33.0 Put @ 0.50
Willing to take stock if it falls that much after earnings this week.
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Had pretty good luck with this one in the past. Just selling a put out in Feb monthly so not technically an earnings play but should have some volatility crush in the monthlies. Wouldn’t mind owning a little…
Sold URI Feb 15 2019 105.0 Put @ 2.30
#CoveredCalls – Full position now sold in earnings week…
Sold STX Feb 08 2019 41.0 Call Limit @ 1.11
#shortstock MO
Back in , sold short 100 shares at 44.71, left too early the other day.
HIIQ STO 2/15/19 31.0 PUTS @1.10
STO January 2021, 65 calls against my 2021 60 calls. The 65 calls were sold at 6.27 average price. Yesterday I bought the TQQQ stock at 43.25 to cover the 55 calls that I sold previously at 6.05
#CoveredCalls – Sold TQQQ Mar 15 2019 50.0 Calls @ 1.15
#CoveredCalls – Sold TNA Feb 15 2019 58.0 Calls @ 1.02
#CoveredCalls – Sold LABU Feb 15 2019 49.0 Call @ 1.96
#earnings LRCX
Sold Feb. 15, 120/160 strangle for 1.78. I would do something similar with XLNX but the last 2 reports, up 9.5 and 15% concern me.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
ROKU STO 1/25/19 CALLS @.60
AMD STO 2/1/19 18.0 PUTS @.52
SFIX STO 1/25/19 22.0 PUTS @.60 ITM
AMD STO 1/25/19 20.0 PUTS @.61 ITM
Bought to close $NFLX Feb 15 385 calls @ .50. Sold for 2.60 on 1/18.
#Earnings $LRCX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +1.31%
July 26, 2018 AC +7.19% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC -4.03%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -4.99% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +3.05%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.12%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.85%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -2.21%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -2.78%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.21%
April 20, 2016 AC -2.23%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +2.88%
Avg (+ or -) 3.40%
Bias 0.34%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 130.44 to 145.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.30 to 142.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 128.08 to 147.92
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $XLNX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +15.00% Biggest UP
July 25, 2018 AC +9.59%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.69%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.08%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.12%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.26%
April 26, 2017 AC +7.35%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -3.67%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +0.96%
July 27, 2016 AC +2.50%
April 27, 2016 AC -8.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 20, 2016 AC +8.58%
Avg (+ or -) 5.46%
Bias 2.15%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 88.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.47 to 94.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 83.67 to 93.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.0%): 75.23 to 101.78
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings
Jeff do you have data on a couple symbols I don’t think anyone here has reported trading-LRCX and XLNX? Thank you again.
#SPX1dte Upside stop level was hit early, but now pulling back sharply.
Closed the short puts for .05. Looking to close short calls for best price I can get.
Trade sold yesterday for .95: $SPX Jan 23rd 2555/2575-2665/2685
Sold SPY Feb13 IC 274/276/251/249 CALL/PUT @.49.
With SPX caught between support and resistance and volatility a little elevated, I added a layer to my ladder. Not a Tide trade.
#spycraft
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC +0.32%
April 20, 2016 AC +5.53%
Jan. 20, 2016 AC -0.56%
Avg (+ or -) 4.66%
Bias -0.09%, no significant positive or negative bias.
With stock at 159.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 149.10 to 168.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 151.58 to 166.42
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 143.78 to 174.22
Open for requests on other symbols.
#BearCallSpreads – Busy week away from the market but managed one fill today…
Sold UVXY FEB 1 2019 72.5/82.5 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.37
For some reason the reply button is not working for me at the moment.
Adding to @jeffcp66 and @kathycon discussion below on SPX/SPY/ES credit spreads below, the idea is to get a directional kick if the short strike is violated. Sometimes it works and you get a good profit spike. From what I did with #spycraft the other day, not looking so good today but I did not have time to adjust. Hoping for a snap back rally tomorrow.
The way I see it there are 3-5 adjustments that may work most of the time, none are going to work all the time.
1. delta neutral buy back half of your short strikes. Works great if it keeps moving, not so much if it reverses like it has for me.
2. delta neutral, buy some options between your strikes. Same as above but probably a little cheaper and the same problems as above.
3. just closing it down at a certain loss level or closing it early. You could also roll out and up/down but may be hard to get credits if it has already moved that much.
4. butterfly, either BW or regular. This is probably the cheapest and can be skewed but then will have loss on one side, but fixed gain or loss on the other. At least you stop the bleeding at that point and lock in your gain/loss.
5. convert the short side to a calendar or diagonal like a #fuzzy and then manage from there but then you may be in a position a lot longer than you want.
Final decision up to you but I am going to keep experimenting with all 5 options to see if there is one that always works the best. Like @kathycon I think the butterfly will be the most efficient. Once on you can leave it alone and let it expire. Everything would cancel out.
Closed my SPX Jan22 2620/2625/2630 put flies (defense position from IC) one account for $1240 profit and the other for $600 profit. I was tempted to hold for a pin at 2625 but decided some profit is better than no profit so I TTMAR. I’ve learned a lot from Deal or No Deal. lol.
The call side of the IC will close for full profit of $600. Was a good day. I owe @hcgdavis for suggesting flies for defense. They will be my “go to” defense on the credit spreads that are near expiration.
#spx1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 23rd 2575/2555 put spreads for .55. Looking to add the call spread on any bounce; hopefully before 3pm ET.
#Earnings Who knows when $WYNN will report? Estimates range from tonight until the 28th. IV on TOS shows it could be this week or next. As you can see from the past dates, they tend to announce in different weeks every quarter.
Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC +15.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.14%
Bias -0.46%, no significant positive or negative bias, just tends to move.
With stock at 111.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 105.24 to 116.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 103.07 to 118.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 93.43 to 128.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
#PieTrades #ShortPuts Sold to Open $T April 31 puts for 1.60.
Replicating my Oct 24th-Jan 18th successful trade. This time it is Jan 22nd to April 18th.
Assignment would be fine on a high-div tock, becomes a PieTrade with covered calls.
Sold Feb. 15, 105/135 strangle for .90.
Jeff-can you show earnings data for WYNN-thanks
#spx1dte Sold SPX Jan23 2600/2595 put credit spread (pcs) @ .25 x 6, four in one account and two in the other. Looking for an opportunity to sell a call credit spread (ccs)
Sold SPX Jan23 2685/2690 ccs @ .20 x6 to complete ICs in both accounts based on break below low of day.
HIIQ BTO STOCK @34.5
SFIX BTO STOCK @22.10
CRON BTO STOCK @15.40
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 22nd 2630/2610 put spreads for 1.20. Condor sold for .95 on Friday. Suffered from poor entry in the last hour on Friday, so my put spread was simply too high to survive this minor (so far) pullback. I’ll be looking to enter these earlier in the day.
Options Bistro 