Bought Feb. 21 straddle for 3.79. sold yesterday for 4.05.
Monthly Archives: January 2020
EXAS
#ShortPuts – Missed this yesterday while out all day helping a friend move. Taking a starter now prior to earnings.
Sold EXAS FEB 14 2020 87.5 Put @ 2.20
ALB
STO February 21, 75 put at 2.10, They mine lithium for batteries.
Risky Risk/Reversal
#SPX1dte Okay, so I’m taking a shot that this weakness it temporary and bullish trend will continue this week.
Sold to open $SPX Jan 17th 3250/3225 put spreads for 1.90.
Bought to open $SPX Jan 17th 3315/3330 call spreads for 1.60.
I’m not going to look for my call spread to become ITM… just any modest increase in price will be good enough to close it.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding a couple more…
Sold UVXY FEB 21 2020 13.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .72
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 17th 3320/3345 call spreads for 2.25. Paid 2.35 for the condor yesterday.
I did this literally 30 seconds before the huge spike down. Unbelievable!
My plan was to allow put side to expire, add a closer put spread and BUY a call spread. I may still do this, but have to watch for awhile to see what happens. Market is bullish, and I truly don’t understand how it has reacted or will react to the volatile trade situation. No one does.
News flash
CHINA TARIFFS TO STAY UNTIL AFTER U.S. ELECTION DESPITE DEAL
LK Put Closed
#shortputs
$LK BTC 1/17 36 put at .05. STO at 1.35 on 1/8
BOOT
STO Feb 21, 40 put at 1.10
LABU Covered Call Rolled
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 1/17 58 call and STO 1/17 55 call at $1 added credit. Be pleased if called away. Stock at 54.56.
LK TNA
#ShortPuts – Closing and opening…
LK:
Bought to Close LK FEB 7 2020 27.5 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.10)
TNA: New starter position…
Sold TNA FEB 07 2020 67.5 Puts @ 1.32
LK
BTC Feb. 7, 27.5 puts at .10, sold at 1.10
ROKU Covered Call / MRVL EXAS LK GSX T Puts / EXAS Leap BUCS / Roll ZM ROKU Calls
#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 1/17 137 call at 2.50
#shortputs
$MRVL STO 1/31 27 put at .50
$EXAS STO 3/20 82.50 put at 3.60. Thank you @jsd501
$LK STO 1/17 44.50 put at 1.10
$GSX STO 2/21 25 put at 3.00
$T STO 1/31 37.5 put at .55
#leaps #bucs
$EXAS BTO 90/100 BUCS at 4.80.
#coveredcalls
$ZM BTC 1/17 70 call and STO 1/31 75 call at 2.20 debit. Stock at 73.30
$ROKU BTC 1/17 152.50 call and STO 1/24 150 call at .98 added credit. Stock at 132.13
PNC earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2019 BO -0.28%
July 17, 2019 BO +0.66%
April 12, 2019 BO +3.09% Biggest UP
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72%
Avg (+ or -) 1.36%
Bias -0.53%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 160.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 155.41 to 164.59
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 157.82 to 162.18
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 151.07 to 168.93
Based on UP max only (+3.1%): 164.94
Open to requests for other symbols.
TSLA
STC all my February 21 bull call spreads at 13.70, bought for 9.83
GS earnings analysis
#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +0.31%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Avg (+ or -) 2.73%
Bias -0.27%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 245.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 236.02 to 253.98
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 238.32 to 251.68
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 221.63 to 268.37
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 233.46
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #rolling JPM Rolled Feb….
LULU
BTC $LULU Jan 24 215/225 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO Jan 09 @1.25
TSLA
STC January 17, 465/485 bull call spread for 19.00, Bought at 11.70
Upside Warning reinstated
#VIXindicator We kicked off a “minor” Upside Warning last night, based on the small VIX spike from Jan 3 and 6. These occur when a volatility spike cancels a previous UpW but no Downside Warning comes. In the past, they often signal continued momentum higher.
MELI BUCS Closed / TNDM BUCS Part Closed / EXAS Calls Rolled / SAVE Puts Rolled
#bucs
$MELI STC 1/17 605/620 BUCS at 14.50. BTO at 6.55 on 12/27. Thank you @jsd501. Great analysis.
$TNDM STC 1/17 60/79 BUCS at 6.50. BTO at 3.16 on 12/18.
#coveredcalls
$EXAS BTC 1/17 102 call and STO 1/31 105 call at .30 added credit. The stock dropped over 14 points today. Talk about pyrrhic victories.
#shortputs
$SAVE BTC 1/17 40 put and STO 2/21 40 put at added 1.40 credit.
BBBY closed
#Earnings . Sold to close $BBBY stock for 15.00. 16.5 #ShortStraddle sold last week for 1.87, calls closed for .01, assigned Friday, so ending profit of .36.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte . Sold to Open $SPX Jan 17th (Friday PM) 3195/3220-3320/3345 condors for 2.35. Strikes at .10 delta.
JPM butterfly
#Earnings Bought to open $JPM Jan 17th 38/40/42 #CallButterfly for .33. Needs to land near 140 on Friday for best profit. Open Interest at that strike are large, and it’s a +2.3% move from now, which is a reasonable expectation…. if we get a bullish move.
#earnings #shortstraddle DAL Sold Feb….
#earnings #shortstraddle DAL #shortstrangles JPM
DAL Sold Feb. 21, 60 straddle for 4.05.
JPM Sold Feb. 21 130/140 strangle for 3.00
Thanks for the data Jeff.
JPM earnings analysis (corrected)
#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +3.01%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.07%
April 12, 2019 BO +4.68% Biggest UP
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Avg (+ or -) 1.52%
Bias 0.42%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.71 to 140.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 133.93 to 138.07
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 129.64 to 142.36
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 132.33
Open to requests for other symbols.
ENPH
STO ENPH Feb 21 2020 $27.5 naked puts @1.02.
ULTA
The stock is perking up so I rolled my March 280 call to the June 300 call for a credit of .70 cents.
EXAS
STO March 20, 82.5 puts at 3.80
SPX long
#SPX1dte Sold to close $SPX 3290/3305 call spreads for .25. Bought for .80 on Friday. Didn’t get the surge I hoped for, and Friday’s lower close didn’t help. Also should expire today: 3240/3220 put spreads, sold for .70. So I’ll net .15 for the day!
BBBY assigned
#Earnings #Assignment Assigned $BBBY shares at 16.50. Need price above 14.63 to breakeven from #ShortStrangle
EXPIRATION / NUGT CALL
#optionsexpiration
$ROKU 144 call
$NUGT 35 call
$T 38.5 put
$SPX 3210/3235 BUPS Thank you @jeff
#coveredcalls
$NUGT STO 1/17 33 call at .75
VIX to SPX Coorelation
I just noticed the coorelation has popped above the zero line for the first time since the beginning of the month-long market pullback last May.
Closing FDX
From the #FallingKnife trade I put on 12/18, buying to close $FDX 4/17 120 puts @ .65. Sold for 1.75. Taking off for over 60% of the profit, more than 3 months early.
VIX
#Hedges – @Kelly has inspired me to venture back into the belly of the beast. This is similar to my recent “beer money” trade. Going out to March and selling put spreads to finance call spreads and doing it all for a credit. I’ll be looking to book it on any decent spikes. Might sell a few extra UVXY calls while I’m holding this…
Sold VIX MAR 20 2020 15.0/13.0 Bull Put Spreads
Bought VIX MAR 20 2020 17.0/22.0 Bull Call Spread
Entire package for a net credit of .06
Max gain of 5.06 but would probably book it at much less than that. Max loss of 1.94 if VIX is below 13.06 at expiration.
SPX risk reversal
#SPX1dte Took a .10 debit to place this bullish #RiskReversal for Monday:
Sold $SPX Jan 13th 3240/3220 put spread for .70.
Bought $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3305 call spreads for .80
Expiring:
Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads, sold yesterday for .70
#shortputs #closing SEDG Monday sold…
#shortputs #closing SEDG
Monday sold a 75 put for 1.00, bought today for .55.
Thanks to JSD501 for this trade!
EWZ
#jadelizard
STO EWZ 21 Feb 48/49/45 @1.25..
NEO PUTS
#shortputs
$NEO STO 1/17 30 put at .60
LK Puts / SPX 3 DTE Closed
#shortputs
$LK STO 1/17 38 put at .70. Thank you @honkhonk81
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 1/13 3290/3315 BECS at 2.30. STO at 2.02. Price now at 1.55. Breathing better now. Thank you for your guidance @jeffcp66
AMAT
Rolled AMAT Jan 10 62.5 Call out to Jan 24 63 Call for $0.85 credit
Cost Basis with this roll $58.03….Assigned 12/11 at $62.00
#pietrades
With the VIX this low…
With the VIX this low and the market going straight up. I put this trade on this morning to profit from any volatility spikes we might get. Put on several of these.
STO Feb 20 VIX $14 call
BTO Feb 20 VIX $18 calls (3)
STO Feb 20 VIX $22 call
I was able to put these on for $0.35 debit, so very low out of pocket if nothing happens. Pretty good profit if something does happen.
Kelly
#shortstrangles WMT #tastytradefollow Sold Feb….
#shortstrangles WMT
#tastytradefollow Sold Feb. 21, 110/125 for 1.66, earnings Feb. 18.
LABU
STO June, 35 put at 2.70
ISRG
#ShortPuts – ISRG had a “pre-earnings announcement” last night. Guess that explains why the IV was so high in the week prior to earnings. The announcement was bullish so rolling short put up to grab a little more premium all in the week before earnings.
Rolled ISRG JAN 17 2020 550.0 Put to JAN 17 2020 587.5 Put @ 2.30 credit (5.10 total now)
BYND
STC 85/105 bull call spread at 8.20, I bought the trade at 4.45, I could have done a bit better but it is a nice trade any way.
Good Morning everyone at the Bistro.
It’s been far too long since I checked in with you. Hope your trading has been going great.
I have continued to only day trade /NQ in my trading account. I like the ability to make some money in the first 60 to 90 minutes of the trading day, then go flat, shut everything down and go about my day. Don’t have to worry about after hour craziness. The trades I make tend to be very short in time span (usually only a few minutes).
I will make a concerted effort to stop in here a lot more.
Have a great trading day.
Kelly
December Jobs Report
#Jobs — Lowest U6 ever
+145,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 160K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 6.7%, down by 0.2%, a record low (since 1994)
Wages up 0.1%, to 2.9% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged
November revised down from 266K to 256K
October revised down from 156K to 152K
AMZN BUCS Closed
#BUCS
$AMZN STC 1/17/ 1820/1860 BUCS at 35. BTO 11/27 at 18.54. Late Christmas present. Held it longer than prudent.
LK Calls Rolled
#coveredcalls
$LK BTC 1/17 36 calls and STO 2/21 46 calls at debit of 4.43. Stock jumped to 44.37.
Jobs tomorrow
Don’t forget, the Jobs report is released before the open tomorrow. This market tends to like catalysts for quick moves.
How low can you go?
#VXXgame Now that the Great Iran Volatility Event of 2020 has ended (or at least paused), we hit new all-time lows on $VXX and $UVXY today.
EWZ
STO IC Feb 21 52/50 43/41 $0.50 Tasty Trade Idea
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads for .70. Not yet sure what I’ll do with call side, if anything.
Also getting out of the Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spread sold yesterday. I don’t know why I made the same trade as last week that crushed me. At least this time the loss will be small. I will now stop thinking upward momentum MUST slow down. Apparently, it does not.
#earnings #closing STZ A couple…
#earnings #closing HD Nov. 18,…
Nov. 18, sold a Dec. 20 #ironcondor in HD for 2.60. HD went from 238 down to 211. I rolled the put spread to Jan. 17, let the calls expire and closed today for an $84 gain.
TSLA
BTO Jan 17 482.5/485.00 Calls $1.21
UBER
Closed #Fuzzy $3.55 Net $212.00 2 Wks
BTO Jan 31 33/35 BuCS $0.86 in-out spread
UBER out
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Jan 10th 31.5 calls for 2.00. Strangles sold for .80 on Dec 6th for .80. Puts previously closed for .05.
#Rolling : Sold $UBER Jan 31st 32/36 strangles for .86. Won’t make up for the loss but will keep it going
LULU
STO $LULU Jan 24 2020 215/225 #BuPS @1.25.
AVGO
#ShortPuts – Other than TSLA and /GC this is the weakest one on my main watchlist today. Hanging on by a thread to a toppy looking chart. I’m selling at the 200ma and about a 4.5 percent divvy yield down there.
Sold AVGO JAN 31 2020 292.5 Put @ 3.10
TSLA
BTO 465/485 bull call spread at 11.70
TREX
STO April 17, 85 puts at 2.90
AYX
STO, 110 puts at 6.60 for march expiration. Stock is at 118 but earnings are on Feb. 25
STNE
BTC STNE 24 JAN 20 40 PUT @.45….STO 1/3 @.95
#earnings BBBY BTC Becs (16.5/17.5)…
#earnings BBBY
BTC Becs (16.5/17.5) for .07
Was STO yesterday for .46
NUGT Calls / Roll LABU Calls / Roll LK Puts
#coveredcalls
$NUGT STO 1/10 35 calls at .56. Wish I had sold stock first thing this morning. A lot slow on trigger.
$LABU BTC 1/10 56 calls and STO 1/17 58 calls at .31 credit. Stock at 58.07.
#shortputs
$LK BTC 1/10 35 puts and STO 1/17 36 puts at .88 credit. Stock at 39.46.
SPX lucky expiration
#SPX1dte That was NOT a fun run up to 3267. But my condor from yesterday has expired worthless.
$SPX Jan 8th 3190/3210-3260/3280, sold yesterday for .80.
#earnings BBBY Sold, (double checked)…
#earnings BBBY
Sold, (double checked) a 17 straddle, Feb. 17, for 3.31
VIX
Getting out of the double vertical with beer money. Closed the long side for .80 on the last spike but vol getting hammered again so bailing here.
Bought to Close VIX JAN 22 2020 13.5/11.5 Bull Put Spreads @ .71
Originally put the trade on for .05 credit so made .14 woohoo!
Missiles flying, airliners getting shot down, impeachments flying everywhere and we can’t get a volatility spike for more than a couple hours. Crazy days we’re in…
CRSP
Covered call, BTO stock at 62.70 and STO January 17, 65 call at 1.30, I like the sector and it tested the 50 dayMA.
#earnings STZ Mistake- I inadvertantly…
#earnings STZ
Mistake- I inadvertantly bought a strangle yesterday. I was using my phone from the airport, I’ll blame my eyes. Argghh.
Sold the put for .45, bought for 1.37, hanging on to the very slightly profitable call.
Closing EXPE
Bought to close $EXPE 4/17 75 puts @ .40. Sold for 1.20 on 11/8/19. Taking the nearly 70% profit off the table with still over 3 months to go to expiration.
BA
#ShortPuts – Whiz confirms and I agree based on some pictures he showed that the 737 was actually shot down last night. I’ll take a shot (no pun intended) out a couple weeks and just prior to earnings.
Sold BA JAN 24 2020 322.5 Put @ 3.10
SPX 5-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spreads for 1.70. I’m not bearish… just don’t think we’ll be moving so fast if we go higher.
I am riding our today’s 3260 call side of condor.
Options Bistro 