Wish I had kept my SPX hedges on. A $3 put that I had on at 2550 is now trading for $21.40-22.
Most months you never need it. Last few weeks it is almost a mega millions or power ball ticket.
Once we settle down I will always keep one of these on. Either long puts, ratio, or risk twist for times like this. Then you have a pile of cash you can deploy when the market tanks.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Closed on GTC order: $TQQQ Oct 26th 60 calls for .15. Sold for 1.40 on Friday. Will wait for at least a small rally before selling more.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
STC $UPS Oct 26th 115 double calendars for .64. Bought yesterday for .89, so small loss. Stock dropped too much. Could have gotten a modest profit at the open but waited for a bounce that didn’t come.
STC @ 3.9. Bot @ 3.12.
Held on to this too long. It was more profitable ydy. Glad to be out as price is falling.
BTO Oct26/Nov16 106 double calendar @ 2.15.
The time range on this calendar is longer than I’ve been doing. Experimenting with this to see how the DubCal performs if the longs are in an expiration where volatility won’t collapse. This position opens with 80%+ vol on the shorts and 40% vol on the longs. A vol collapse on the shorts with stock price staying between 98 and 115 has good profit potential.
#Earnings BTC $BIIB Oct 26th 285/350 strangle for .735. I had an order in for this all morning at .70. I just switched the order to .75 and it immediately filled for .735.
Bot CAT DubCal @ 1.22. STC @ .10 for almost full loss. Sat on this one too long hoping for a rally. Smokium hopium.:-)
Bot ydy @ 1.45. Sold for 2.22.
The DubCal trading gods are being good to me. I hope this string of profits keeps on piling up. lol.
#earnings
#Earnings $VLO reports tomorrow before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 26, 2018 BO 6.85% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO 2.63%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -1.33%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -1.78%
July 27, 2017 BO -0.58%
April 25, 2017 BO -1.48%
Jan. 31, 2017 BO -3.62%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO 4.93%
July 26, 2016 BO 4.73%
May 3, 2016 BO -3.66% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -2.19%
Oct. 28, 2015 BO 1.53%
Avg + or – 2.94%
Bias +0.50%, slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 85.60 to 94.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 87.35 to 92.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.9%): 83.84 to 96.17
Open for requests on other symbols.
Bot ydy @ 2.77. Sold today @ 5.16.
Still holding ALXN and BIIB because they’re holding right in the peak of the profit zone.
#earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies – With this market and a max loss of 325 possible I’m taking what I can get and moving on. Didn’t get as much as I was hoping out of this and BIIB but still decent winners for quickies.
Bought to Close ILMN OCT 26 2018 300.0/315.0/330.0 Iron Fly @ 10.00 (sold for 11.75)
#earnings #shortstrangles MSFT
Sold Nov. 16, 95/115 for 1.81
Could today be the day we get the panic low?
#Earnings $MSFT reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC 1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC 1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 6.41%
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC 0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC 2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC 4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC 5.31%
April 21, 2016 AC -7.17% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 28, 2016 AC 5.82%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 10.07% Biggest UP
Avg + or – 3.87%
Bias +2.45%, fairly strong upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 107.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 100.91 to 113.09
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 102.38 to 110.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 95.78 to 117.22
Open for requests on other symbols.
#ShortPuts #ContangoETFs Sold $SOXL Feb 75 put for 7.00. This one is getting a little nerve wracking, breaking 100 today. I have 3 shorts; won’t be selling new ones, and rolling any that get breached.
I’m looking at a lot of symbols today. I’m only going to post this one without being asked. Please let me know of any symbols you would like to see this analysis for and I’ll be happy to post.
#Earnings $TSLA reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC 6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC 0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC 2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 4.73%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 11.17%
Avg + or – 6.57%
Bias +0.36%, no significant directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 290.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 255.48 to 324.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.94 to 309.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 243.08 to 336.92
STC Dbl Cal 113 BTO yesterday .85 STC .96 very small win, tried for too much early.
Need to grab what you can early!!
#ShortPuts #IRA – It is giving a chance to get back in. Good divvy down here so selling at the money.
Sold T JAN 18 2019 31.0 Puts @ 1.30
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Oct26/Nov2 150 call/put calendars for 2.475 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.40.
#Earnings BTC $ILMN Oct 26th 275/350 strangles for .40. Sold yesterday for 2.65.
#Earnings Wednesday’s full up: FFIV, LVS, MSFT, NOW, TSLA, V, WHR, and then Thursday morning: AAL, BMY, CELG, COP, SHOP, SWK, TWTR, VLO.
How many trades can I place in a 6.5 hour period?
At low prices to try to get some fills to close positions for a good profit target. Only 1 fill came through.
Bought to close $DUST Jan 18 50 call @ .65. Sold for 4.00 on 8/15.
Bot ydy @ .35. Closed today for .50 x4
#LongCalls #LEAPS – This is a sale in the estimated earnings week but with WYNN you never know until the day of sometimes. Giving it a lot of room.
Sold WYNN NOV 9 2018 115.0 Calls @ 1.32
BTO $EW Oct 26th/Nov 2nd 150 call/put double calendars for 1.40
BTO $UPS Oct 26th/Nov 2nd 115 call/put double calendar for .89
#shortputs USO
sold Dec 21, 14 put for .59
#shortstock #closing BNS
Oct. 18, sold 100 shares short for 54.52, bought to cover today today for 54.21, was greedy and gave some away but out for big city lunch money.
#LongCalls #LEAPS – A few buys a few sells and another 2021 roll on a beaten down name.
EWW:
Bought to Close EWW OCT 26 2018 48.5 Calls @ .02 (sold for .32)
Sold EWW NOV 9 2018 48.0 Calls @ .37
GLD: Ratio’d and rolling to give it some room…
Rolled GLD NOV 9 2018 115.0 Calls to DEC 21 2018 117.0 Calls @ .25 debit
LABU: Rolled LEAPS to 2021 and booked a weekly. No new sales yet.
Rolled LABU JAN 17 2020 110.0 Calls to JAN 15 2021 110.0 Calls @ 3.95 debit
Bought to Close LABU OCT 26 2018 70.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.31)
OLED: Earnings sale leaving a lot of room to adjust prior to the announcement
Sold OLED NOV 2 2018 125.0 Calls @ 1.50
RTN: Selling half the week after earnings and waiting on the rest.
Sold RTN NOV 2 2018 202.5 Calls @ .70
SMH:
Bought to Close SMH OCT 26 2018 101.0 Calls @ .03 (sold for .65)
Sold SMH NOV 16 2018 100.0 Calls @ .58
XBI:
Bought to Close XBI NOV 9 2018 94.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.14)
Sold XBI NOV 9 2018 87.0 Calls @ .65
Wow.
#Earnings #IronFlies – I can’t walk away from the table. Risking my /NQ overnight profit here for a bigger payoff. Selling an iron fly just inside the expected move. 15 wide on a 19.80 move. Risking 325 to make 1175…
Sold ILMN OCT 26 2018 300.0/315.0/330.0 Iron Fly @ 11.75
TNA and UVXY
Sold on GTC in the morning.
STO TNA Apr18’19 40 PUT 2.50
STO TNA Apr18’19 45 PUT 3.50
STO TNA Jan18’19 45 PUT 2.00
STO TNA Jan18’19 50 PUT 2.80
STO TNA Nov02’18 55 PUT 1.10
STO UVXY Jan18’19 112 CALL 7.00
TWLO BTO STOCK 68.57 Covering some short 68.5 Calls expiring this Friday.
SFIX BTC 10/26/18 27.0 CALLS @.05
SFIX STO 11/2/18 25.5 CALLS @.45
S
#SPXcampaign Intended as a day trade… doubtful that I’ll hold overnight.
Sold $SPX Oct 26th 2700/2675 put spreads for 5.95.
Also, sold $UVXY Jan 2019 112 call for 5.25.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Oct 26th 2820/2845 call spreads for .45. Sold Friday for 7.10.
This profit covers a large part of my dying long #PreEarnings trades.
Bot GLW Oct26/Nov2 31 put/call calendar ydy @ .20. Sold today @ .37 x10
#shortputspread CAT
Followed Ramie’s idea, sold Dec. 105/110 put spread for 1.06.
Bot ILMN Oct26/Nov2 double calendar 305 call/put @ 2.77.
BTC the the 52 DTE 55/86 strangle for 0.28. Sold for 0.3 so a $100 profit after a week and at least I can say I made money on something these last few weeks.
Also freed up cash and margin for a hopeful bottom
#shortcalls UVXY
sold Jan. 112 call for 6.05, highest strike
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Since there are other tickers I’d like to play on their earnings I’m booking this one since it’s a bit pricey. Goal was to get half of max but volatility expansion today isn’t allowing it. Stock is behaving nicely but strictly out of risk management I’m shipping it on down the road.
Bought to Close BIIB OCT 26 2018 295.0/345.0 Strangle @ 3.13 (sod for 5.20)
My watchlist is a sea of red but there are surprisingly some regular stocks (not volatility) that are green…
AMBA
BIIB
CMG
PM
RTN
T
TSLA
WHR
Officially went flat on the year with todays drop on paper. Gave back all the profits since Feb. Obviously income investing cannot keep up with extended moves.
I am comfortable with my directional trading now but do not have the time to watch the markets all day.
Have to come up with a hybrid trading model. Core based on income investing but really need to take some directional plays to boost returns and keep up with the extended directional moves. As I generate cash with rolls will figure out how to do that better.
Hope everyone else is preserving some gains.
#shortstock #closing KBE
Oct. 17 sold short 100 shares at 44.19, bought to cover today for 41.72, minus a transaction fee of 13.90. Imagine a bank ETF with some transaction fee, heh heh.
#ShortPuts #IRA – Getting down into levels where I definitely wouldn’t mind owning some. Adding to the ladder…
Sold TNA DEC 21 2018 50.0 Put @ 2.50
#ShortPuts #IRA – Sold TQQQ Jan 18 2019 40.0 Put @ 2.50
#Earnings Sold $ILMN 275/350 strangles for 2.65. Analysis in my post below.
Bot Oct26/Nov2 325 double calendar ydy to play thru earnings. Bot @ 2.15. Sold @ 4.
#Earnings $BA reports tomorrow before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 BO -0.65%
April 25, 2018 BO 4.19%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO 4.93%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO -2.84%
July 26, 2017 BO 9.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2017 BO -0.98%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO 4.24%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO 4.68%
July 27, 2016 BO 0.82%
April 27, 2016 BO 2.88%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -8.92% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 21, 2015 BO 1.66%
Avg + or – 3.89%
Bias 1.66%, slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 345.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 326.25 to 363.75
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 332.55 to 359.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.9%): 311.85 to 380.15
Sold $UVXY Nov 9 75/85 bear call spread @ 1.24. When things calm down this should come in quickly.
https://tinyurl.com/ycofjoja
#Earnings It looks like TSLA has announced earnings date of tomorrow. Thanks @optioniceman for the heads up.
In addition to 300 call I sold earlier (and early), sold Oct 26th 230 call for 2.05
http://ir.tesla.com/events/event-details/tesla-inc-q3-2018-financial-results-and-qa-webcast
#Earnings $ILMN reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 30, 2018 AC 12.14%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.06%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -3.54% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -2.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 14.82% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC 1.69%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC 0.92%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -2.75%
July 26, 2016 AC 8.09%
May 3, 2016 AC 0.98%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC -3.36%
Oct. 20, 2015 AC -3.39%
Avg + or – 4.80%
Bias 1.64%, slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 285.32 to 328.68
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 292.27 to 321.73
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 261.50 to 352.50
STO 1550/1570 bull put spread @3.60 credit.
#shortstock #shortputs #rolling #closing MRO
Sept. 10 sold short 100 shares @ 20.40 and MRO started going up. Bought to cover today for 19.66 after rolling an Oct. 26, 20.50 put to Nov. 23, 20 put for .30, making me long MRO.
#Earnings $EW reports after the bell today. This is not one I’ve traded often, if ever, but the premium makes it look interesting. Chart is a little wacky, however. Watch your risk
Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC 3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC 0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC 10.49%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09%
July 26, 2016 AC 5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC 0.08%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC 8.33%
Oct. 26, 2015 AC 2.76%
Avg + or – 6.60%
Bias -1.31%, downside bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 132.96 to 159.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.37 to 155.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 121.05 to 170.95
Sold $TSLA Oct 26th 300 call for 4.60.
Earnings date is not confirmed but all indications say it’ll be next week. But the uncertainty may be why this Friday’s options are jacked up.
Sold $CAT Nov 16 110/100 bull put spread for 1.25 credit
I think we get it below 5% today.
CADE, HAL, HAS, IQV, KMB, ONB, PETS, PHG, PII, SALT, TCF
Notable Earnings Tues:
ACC, ALKS, AMTD, ATI, AVY, BRO, CAT, CDNS, CIT, CNC, DGX, EDU, FITB, FNB, GLW, GPK, HBAN, HLX, HOG, HUBB, HXL, JBLU, LPT, MBFI, MCD, MMM, NEE, PCAR, PHM, PNR, RF, SLCA, SLM, SNV, SPN, TRU, UTX, VZ, WAT, XRX, ZION
Notable Earnings Wed:
ALXN, AMP, APH, BKU, BPOP, BSX, BXMT, CB, CHKP, CNI, COF, CSL, DTE, EQR, EW, FCX, GD, GRA, HA, HIW, HLT, IR, IRBT, ITW, JNPR, LH, MANH, NAVI, NDAQ, NSC, NYCB, OC, PB, QSR, RES, RHI, ROIC, ROL, RRC, SEIC, SIX, SMPL, STL, STM, T, TER, TMO, TPH, TRVG, TSS, TUP, TXN, UPS, VAR, WRB
Notable Earnings Thurs:
AAL, AAN, ABB, ABX, AEM, AEP, AFL, AIMC, ALK, ALLE, ALLY, AMD, ARI, ASGN, AXTA, BC, BEN, BHE, BMS, BMY, BUD, BWA, CCE, CELG, CFX, CLGX, CLS, CMC, CMCSA, CME, CMS, COP, CRI, CSTM, CTXS, CVBF, DNKN, DRE, ECHO, EFX, ELY, ENTG, EQC, EQM, EQT, FAF, FBP, FFIV, FNF, FR, FTI, GG, GGG, GRUB, HSY, IMAX, IP, IRDM, IRM, KIM, KKR, KN, KNX, KRC, KS, LAZ, LDOS, LEA, LKQ, LM, LUV, LVS, MCK, MEOH, MLNX, MMC, MO, MRK, MSFT, MTH, NEM, NLSN, NOW, NRZ, NTRI, NVCR, NVT, ODFL, OII, ORI, PKG, PS, PTC, PTEN, PX, QEP, RCL, RJF, RS, RTN, SAVE, SCG, SHOP, SITC, SNBR, SPG, SPGI, SRE, SRPT, SWK, TAL, TECK, TMK, TRN, TROW, TSCO, TWTR, UNM, UNP, V, VC, VLO, VLY, VRTX, WHR, WM, WRI, WWE, XEL, XLNX
Notable Earnings Fri:
AJG, ALV, AON, ARLO, AVT, BIDU, BMRN, BOOT, BVN, BYD, CA, CBLK, CENX, CERN, CINF, CL, COG, COL, CPT, CUBE, CVA, CXP, CY, DECK, DFS, DLR, ELLI, EMN, EXPE, FBHS, FE, FHB, FII, FLEX, FSLR, FTV, GDI, GILD, GT, HIG, HTA, INTC, INVA, ISBC, JEF, KEX, LEG, LOGM, LPLA, LSCC, MAT, MCO, MHK, MMSI, MPWR, NATI, NOV, OFC, PFG, PFPT, POR, PSX, R, REG, RMD, ROP, RSG, SGEN, SIVB, SNAP, SOHU, SWN, SYK, TEN, UHS, VRSN, VTR, WDC, WETF, WY, WYNN, ZBH
I took the liberty of revising Iceman’s favorite j-peg.
#Futures – Got excited and had to share. Took 19 points out of the NQ futures in my first live money try using the Theo Trade strategy. Just played the tiny bounce off 7100…
If I can generate enough cash with some rolls this week, I might start nibbling on SPY IC or at least one sided credit spreads. Would be a shame not to at least collect a few $ with the premiums being higher than they have been in a long time.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Just going with one in case I have to manage it for awhile. Based on Jeff’s data (BTW…which I love what he’s doing with those posts…thank you!!) selling near the max move.
Sold BIIB OCT 26 2018 295.0/345.0 Strangle @ 5.20
Sold LMT pre-ER long calls @ 94% loss and BWB for 38% loss. Still holding double calendar thru earnings to reduce losses.
#Earnings Sold to Open $BIIB Oct 26th 285/350 strangle for 3.35. Filled on 1, have another 1 pending. Strikes are just outside expected move when I posted the analysis earlier. However, IV has dropped intraday and now expected move is 296 to 343, which is the same as the MAX moves over last 12 quarters.
I’ll likely sell a third later in the day, but 3 is my max at this high of a stock price.
#LongCalls #LEAPS – With biotech in the dumpster any 2020 positions I don’t mind keeping are in a perfect position to roll to 2021 for minimal cost.
Rolled XBI JAN 17 2020 97.0 Calls to JAN 15 2021 97.0 Calls @ 3.70 debit
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Setting up for next week. Selling weekly strangles against my long LEAP puts. Less calls than puts for safety.
Sold UVXY NOV 2 2018 70.0 Call @ 2.35
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Nice start to the week…
Bought to Close AMBA OCT 26 2018 39.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .55)
Sold AMBA NOV 9 2018 36.0 Calls @ .62
Bot LMT Oct26/Nov2 325 put/call @ 1.95. Will hold thru earnings as a potential salvage trade for the pre-ER positions not working out.
Big move down after earnings.
Sold $KMB Jan 18 95 puts @ 1.35. Strike is at what would be a 5 year low (last traded at 95 in Oct 2013). Stock at 105.61, delta of puts 18.
I roll my November 2, 58 calls to November 9, 58.5 calls for a credit of .30 cents. I need .18 cents per week so I am getting an extra .12 cents and an increase in the strike price of 1/2 point.
Sold two BWB (broken-wing fly) for average 10% profit. Got out based on hitting target price on LITE. The flies don’t profit as much as the long calls but they have less risk too.
STO November 2, 72 calls @ .55 cents. These are against my 2020, 115 calls but I still have 64 weeks to earn the premium to pay for this position.
#LongCalls Bought $SPY Nov 16th 284 calls for 1.25, adding to my position.
Options Bistro 