#Earnings Sold to close partial $SHOP Feb15/Feb22 175 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for 1.60. Price moving toward strike so trying to close the rest for higher credit.
$TAP Dbl Cal is tapping out. Will need to see if a bounce comes into Friday. This was cheap (.34), so no biggie.
$UAA no gap but drifting higher so this may turn out well. #LongStraddle bought for 2.50.
Building an SPX Feb13 IC position today. Will keep tabs on it here.
Sold Feb13 2760/2765 BeCS @ .50 x1
Sold Feb13 2760/2765 BeCS @ .45 x2
Sold Feb13 2695/2690 BuPS @ .25 x2
Sold Feb13 2705/2700 BuPS @ .25 x2
Sold Feb13 2765/2775 BeCS @ .30 x1. Converted one of the 2760/2765 to 10w for .30 credit.
Sold Feb13 2715/2710 BuPS @ .30 x2
Total credit $380.
Will let you know how it closes tomorrow. May have to buy back a short call or two.
When all was said and done, I lost $419 on this batch of spreads. I bought back the 2760 calls on a breach early in the morning. It dropped soon after and never went ITM again. These trades continue to make the case for price staying within EM most of the time. Gotta stick to my rules of adjusting on a breach. Only lost about one day’s profits. Back to work tomorrow.
CRON STO 3/15/19 21.5 CALLS @.45 Covered
PYX BTO STOCK @20.0 Had to cover short calls that I sold this morning.
#CoveredCalls – Meant to roll this sooner but forgot about it. Exercised early on a call for this Friday. Unfortunately I sold it in the hole figuring the market wouldn’t rally to ridiculous levels. Exercised at 45 with a basis of 63 so an 18 point loss.
To replace this position: (exercised on 1 but selling 2 to keep the new puts at reasonable levels)
Sold 2 TNA JUL 19 2019 65.0 Puts @ 9.50
If the stock continues up the entire position is a 50 cent winner. If it implodes I’ll have the shares at a 64.50 basis which seems reasonable given the circumstances.
PYX STO 2/15/19 20.0 CALLS @.60 Good earnings yesterday.
Closed Early
$SPX BTC 2/11/2745/2730 BECS at .05. STO today at .85 Thank you @jeffcp66
$JPM BTC 2/15 90/100/110/100 IC at 2.30 STO 1/14 for 5.14 Thank you @thomberg1201 for the earnings trade
$SAVE STC 2/15 BUCS at 4.20 BTO on 1/29 for 1.90
$EA BTC 3/15 75 puts at .10. STO on 2/7 for 1.68 after their earnings announcement (poorly received initially).
Thanks to @ramie77
#shortputs
$HIIQ STO 2/15 38 put at 1.40. Thank you @honkhonk81
$SFLY STO 3/15 45 put at 2.05. Hope this is picture perfect.
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Just got in and see one fill today…
Bought to Close WTW FEB 22 2019 37.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .65)
After selling an eight-rung ladder of SPY ICs, 21 dte, 16delta both sides, starting with Feb8 expiration, one IC has closed with $38 in profits. I’m confident that with proper management, the spycraft strategy has edge and a positive expectancy over time. However, it doesn’t jive with my trading style. There are lots of positions to manage and then at best a small profit. I could sell 10x or 20x instead of 2x but I’d rather trade SPX than do that.
After my SPY Mar1 spreads expire, I’m going to move on. I may come back but for now, there are other strategies that keep me more engaged; hence better profits. I will report back here on total profits when the last spreads close.
Bought $UAA Feb 15th 21 #LongStraddle for 2.50. Need a 11.9% move. Average has been 16.1%.
Bought $TAP Feb15/Feb22 65 #DoubleCalendar for .34. Super cheap!
Looking at a calendar for $SHOP, also cheap.
STO the ALXN 2/15 118 put for 0.85 credit. Could probably get more now. 117.15 cost basis if assigned but more likely will roll.
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Sold March 15, 365/375 for .93. Stock currently up 8.55 to 314.
#Earnings — $UAA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters. NOTE: symbol UAA only lists history starting 1/31/17. The data before that date is for symbol $UA (below the line).
Tue 10/30/2018 BO +30.29% Biggest UP
Thu 07/26/2018 BO -4.60%
Tue 05/01/2018 BO -2.25%
Tue 02/13/2018 BO +22.00%
Tue 10/31/2017 BO -29.25% Biggest DOWN
Tue 08/01/2017 BO -8.14%
Thu 04/27/2017 BO +7.40%
Tue 01/31/2017 BO -28.47%
——————————
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -21.24%
Tue 07/26/2016 BO -9.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 BO +6.00%
Thu 01/28/2016 BO +24.13%
Avg (+ or -) 16.10%
Bias -1.13%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 21.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.26 to 23.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.62 to 24.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.3%): 14.64 to 27.36
Closed Feb11 put spreads (8) and call spreads (4) spreads for .05 each. Total credit $450. Total profit $390.
#spx1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Feb 11th 2730 calls for .20. Stop level breached earlier.
CRON STO 21.5 CALLS @.90 Covered
CRON STO 2/15 19.0/14.0 BuPS @.80
#Earnings — $TAP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day range was roughly the same)
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO +1.44%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.05%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.59%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -0.65%
Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 65.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 60.77 to 69.23
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.49 to 67.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 54.99 to 75.01
Closing FB Mar #Falling Knife
Bought to close $FB Mar 15 110 puts @ .01. Sold for 1.17 on 11/8.
Bought to close $EA Mar 15 75 puts @ .15. Sold for 1.41 on 2/6.
#Earnings — $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves were similar, with a smaller range, meaning extreme 1-day moves are typically faded over the following days)
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
May 4, 2016 BO -3.67%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO +9.12%
Avg (+ or -) 6.92%
Bias 2.96%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.33 to 194.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 164.74 to 189.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 155.71 to 198.29
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us
#LongCalls #LEAPS #ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – A few odds and ends yesterday. A great week for NVDA and earnings coming next week.
NVDA:
Bought to Close NVDA FEB 08 2019 150.0 Call @ .05 (covered sold for 4.70)
Sold NVDA FEB 15 2019 148.0 Call @ 4.90 (covered)
Bought to Close NVDA FEB 08 2019 145.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 2.51) I’ll sell again before Thur earnings
STX: Rolling picking up another .75 of upside
Rolled STX FEB 08 2019 41.0 Calls to MAR 08 2019 41.5 Calls @ .25 credit
UVXY: Selling diagonals against free March 90 short calls. Not as risky as it looks with ITM short puts helping.
Sold UVXY FEB 22 2019 57.5 Calls @ 1.23
WTW: Selling new positions very carefully as whipsaw risk increases and stock is 74 percent off recent highs. Earnings still a couple weeks away. Sales seem small but are twice what I need so could still become a nice winner eventually.
Bought to Close WTW FEB 15 2019 35.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .30)
Sold WTW MAR 1 2019 39.0 Calls @ .30
EXPE, after the huge gap up after hours, 9 points yesterday it was up only 3 around lunch time today. My short 126 puts that were 4.75 and short 120 puts were at 1.75 both crushed to pennies. My leaps maintained their values. After several months of adjusting out for 16.23 and 13.97 credits. Cost basis was 9.43.
Some days lucky is better than good and I will take it. This was a huge winner after being flat since Oct.
Now I have a bunch of cash and will look for trades over the weekend for Monday.
#optionsexpiration
$NFLX 355 Short call (Covered)
$DATA 115/145 Strangle Earnings trade STO at 2.56. Thank you @jeffcp66 for the data on $DATA.
Closed Early
#shortputspread
$BA BTC 2/15 372.50/377.50 BUPS at .20. STO at 1.38 on 1/31 after earnings. Thesis the airplane company would stay up.
#shortcallspreads
$GS BTC 2/15 205/215 BECS at .05. STO at 1.75 on 1/22
#shortcallspreads
$TSLA STO 3/15/2019 335/325 BECS at 3.00 Bridget at OMM
#coveredcalls
$NFLX STO 2/15 350 calls at $6.00
#VIXIndicator Since we’re in this pullback I looked back at other times we had a signficant pullback (more than 1%) after an Upside Warning fires. The chart below shows all of the instances since 1999.
Two of them resulted in no new highs, and we dropped significantly before the Upside Warning was technically canceled (the two rows with red in the right-most column). The other times all eventually went higher after the dip.
The center columns show the move 1-day, 2-days, etc, after the UpW. The right-hand columns show the number of days from the UpW to the new SPX high, and the percentage move to get there.
Also note that other than one time last April, this hasn’t happened any other time since 2011.
For me, the $VIX seems pretty unmoved by this week’s volatility and I still think we have higher to go before any major pullback.
Sold Feb 11 2650/2645 BuPS, 4@.50, 2@.45, and 2 @.30. Total credit $350
Sold Feb 11 2735/2740 BeCS @ .25 x4. Total credit $100
#spx1-dte
Feb 8 positions all closed for .05. Total profit $362. Did not defend the put credit spread with 2670 short puts.
#spx1-dte
HIIQ STO 2/15/19 39.0 PUT @4.80 One week to expiration. Margin used $605.00. If it works, it is almost a 75% return on my investment. It’s ATM.
#SPX1dte Expiring today : $SPX Feb 8th 2630/2655-2730/2755 condors, sold yesterday for .90
Sold to Open $SPX Feb 11th 2635/2655-2730/2745 condors for .80. Yes, this is broken-wing as I had to make the call side narrower because the 2750 spike has insufficient volume. (IV: 8.33%, SPX: 2700)
SPX BeCS, FEB 11 2019 sell 2730 call, buy 2735 call currently at $0.20, trying $0.25
STC on GTC order….GS Butterfly 15 FEB 19 195/185/175 PUT @3.90….BTO 1/17 @1.82….
#assignment AAPL
One of my 2 lots of assigned AAPL had a cost basis of 156 after selling a Feb. 15, 160 call on Jan. 31. The shares were called away, I miss the dividend but I’m out with a gain.
Sold layers of SPX Feb8 BuPS x6 and BeCS x4 at different strikes for total credit of $412. So far, so good. I’ll let you know how it turns out tomorrow.
#spx1-dte
#CoveredCalls – I did a trade! Woohoo! Have to say I don’t hate the pullback. Helps out some of the ITM positions.
Rolled TQQQ FEB 15 2019 44.0 Call to MAR 1 2019 45.0 Call @ .21 credit
Adding 1.21 of upside while still keeping a little more downside help.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 8th 2630/2655-2730/2755 condors for .90 (IV: 12.8%, SPX 2697)
#shortcallspreads TSLA
yesterday sold 350/360 call spread for 1.02, bought today for .40 on the $10 move down.
#assignment NTGR
Back in July I sold a Dec. NTGR 55 put, rolled it to January, then February, then March. It had become an NS option. I was assigned and also received 198 shares of ARLO, a spin-off. I was assigned at 41.25, even though it was a 55 put. ARLO is going for 3.83, but TDA says I was assigned at 6.93. I’m down about $500 on the two positions. Always something new.
#earnings MAT
Sold March 15, 13 straddle for 1.92.
Bought to close $UPS Jul 19 75 puts @ .37-.38. Sold for 1.35 on 12/13. Taking the 70%+ off the table with over 5 months to go.
#Earnings $MAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -2.81%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.17%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.35%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.89%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.91%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.79%
April 20, 2017 AC -13.56%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -17.64% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +6.00%
July 20, 2016 AC -0.30%
April 20, 2016 AC -5.78%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.50%
Bias -2.66%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 12.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 11.04 to 13.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 11.38 to 13.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 10.13 to 14.47
Open for requests on other symbols.
@hcgdavis is so good to recap his trading strats and share lessons learned. I’m going to try to follow his example here.
Over the last six weeks or so, I’ve traded multiple SPY/SPX ICs using different time frames. It’s a given that defense is absolutely necessary to survive. However, defending too early robs you of potential profits more often than not. Although it will be more expensive, I’ve decided not to defend ICs anymore unless the short strikes are breached. Expensive defense 10% of the time is cheaper than inexpensive defense 40% of the time. If you’re selling spreads outside 1sd, most of them are going to be safe.
#IC_Defense
#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +3.93%
Avg (+ or -) 15.26%
Bias 0.23%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.69 to 31.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.30 to 31.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 16.10 to 38.90
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings SKX MAT
Jeff-can you show data for SKX and MAT, volatility seems high on both? Thanks
#fuzzy
EXPE have the 120/120 and 125/126 expiring tomorrow. Cost basis 9.43. It is really holding onto the time value, I have over 5k of theta decay on this position alone. Should crush with earnings tonight and either way it swings this trade is up huge and will close all of it tomorrow then reset. One of my biggest winning trades so far, especially from a recovery standpoint. Down a lot earlier this year, up 17k+ now 🙂
GILD 70/70 adjusted earlier this week. Cb 8.00, I miscalculated below.
XBI 80/80 rolled out to next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.13
LNG 50/60 cb 13.26, adjusts next week
GILD 67.5/69 rolled another week for 0.41 credit. cb 7.19
Some of these trades should be scratched in another 2-3 months, I hope, then have pure income.
#pietrades and #lizardpies
SQ 68 put rolled up to next week 70 for 1.11 credit. Cb 68.89 if assigned but will be out before earnings.
EOG 98.5 rolled out 15 DTE for 0.67 and 0.3 credits. Cb 96.78 and 97.1 Tradestation having issues with option station pro. However, if you call them they will not charge you for the broker assisted trade.
TQQQ 51 cc cb 57.04. Will roll aggressively
TQQQ 51 cc cb 57.10 same
FAS 56 cc rolled out 1 week and up to 56.5 for 0.13 credit. cb 54.64
Hope everyone has a good expiration, volatility back today I assume because of the idiots in DC comments on the trade wars.
White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Thursday that the administration is hoping for a trade agreement with China but much work remains before anything is finalized.
“The president has indicated that he’s optimistic with respect to a potential trade deal,” Kudlow said on Fox Business. “But we’ve got a pretty sizable distance to go here.”
The comments coincided with a sharp drop in the stock market that sent the Dow industrials down more than 200 points as Wall Street waits to see whether Washington and Beijing can meet a March 2 deadline, after which tariffs both sides have levied could go back into effect.
#earnings TWTR
Sold March 15 28/42 strangle for 1.16, closed today for .77
#Earnings Sold to close final $FEYE puts for 2.27.
Sold to close $MPC Feb08/Feb15 #DoubleCalendar for .85. Bought yesterday for .65
#Earnings $EXPE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +2.49%
July 26, 2018 AC +9.53%
April 26, 2018 AC +8.19%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -15.46%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -15.98% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC +3.40%
April 27, 2017 AC -1.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -0.48%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +4.12%
July 28, 2016 AC -2.19%
April 28, 2016 AC +8.20%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +9.56% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.79%
Bias 0.80%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 127.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 118.87 to 136.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 118.85 to 135.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 107.13 to 147.87
Open for requests on other symbols.
Bought some more $SPY March 8th 277.5 calls for 1.44, adding to what started yesterday. This pullback makes me worry about Upside Warning coming through, but not throwing in the towel unless it is sustained. Pullbacks have been known to happen after the Warning fires… threw me off in Sept 2017, and then got my face ripped off to the upside.
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 puts for 2.05 and 2.40. Still holding a few more. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.81. Smaller return that usual, but I’ll take it.
Working on $MPC exit. Also will not be as good as CMI was yesterday, but still a winner.
Rolled my breached 15 Mar 130 Calls that I rolled into yesterday out to 18 April 135 Calls for $0.25 credit. This is against my Jan 2021 125 Calls….#Leaps
SPY 21 dte ladder strat
I’m switching from ICs to Risk Reversals during this period of low volatility.
STO Feb27 267/265 BuPS @ 31 x2. BTO Feb27 276/278 BuCS @.67 x1. Goal is for credit to cover debit.
Opened a portfolio-style hedge in SPY to mitigate losses on the long side.
#earnings #shortstrangles TWTR
Sold March 15, 28/42 strangle for 1.16
#SPX1dte $SPX Feb 6th 2710/2690 put spreads expiring worthless. Sold yesterday for 1.10.
#Earnings Bought to Open $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 #LongStraddle for 1.81. Need a 9.7% move, which is the 12-quarter average.
Bought to Open $MPC Feb08/Feb15 67.5 #DoubleCalendar for .65.
#fuzzy
MU STC the 35/35 for 7.38 credit. Total loss of 6.92 but I am now out of my biggest losers. It could have been much worse, it was down 25+ points at one point.
Everything left is solidly in the green EXPE, GILD, XBI.
Also today is the anniversary of the SVXY implosion and my biggest trading losses ever. While I still have a long way to go to break even on cost basis and even further to hit all time highs, the tactics we have been developing since then have been account savers for fixing bad trades. Thanks everyone for the input and by all of us trying new techniques I think we are all able to handle volatility better and even profit more from it. Keep up the good work!
At least 2 accounts are about to hit all time highs, 4 to go.
I have a bunch of cash now and will be adding some trades tomorrow.
The selling momentum seems to have subsided and the stock is off its lows of the day. IV still elevated but falling fast so I want to capture some of that. Sold $EA Mar 15 75 puts @ 1.41. Delta 24.
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +9.73%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC +12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Avg (+ or -) 9.73%
Bias -2.27%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 18.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.45 to 20.05
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.47 to 20.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 14.78 to 21.72
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.43%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC -2.92%
Avg (+ or -) 7.70%
Bias -0.74%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 521.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.07 to 557.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 480.89 to 561.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 393.67 to 648.33
Open for requests on other symbols.
Bot VXXB Mar8 34/30/38 broken fly @ 1 x3. Betting on volatility to continue falling for a bit.
#volatility
#VIXIndicator Because I’m becoming an Excel geek, I made a new chart measuring a performance metric for the Upside Warning. This shows the rise we have gotten from past Upside Warnings in relation to how much the SPX had already recovered before the Warning hit. For instance, the upper-left-most dot represents a 32.2% rise in SPX AFTER the UpW; the UpW hit after SPX had recovered only 26% of its drop (horizontal axis).
I drew the sloppy red line showing the general trend: the less we have recovered from the correction when the UpW hit, the higher we can expect the rise to be after the UpW. Although the red line shows a trend, you can see that most are clustered in the same general area.
And for comparison today, we had recovered 65.5% at the close yesterday, when the UpW hit. (high 2940, low 2351, 20% drop. Close yesterday was 2737, which means we regained 65.5% of the drop).
From Mar 15 33/42 short strangle, rolled the 33 puts up to 39 (delta 30) for 1.00 credit. Position is now a 39/42 strangle. Total premium taken in now 2.92.
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Channeling my inner-Iceman, sold February 22, 350/360 for 1.02
#shortputs VXXB
TastyTrade idea-sold March 15, 24/31 put spread for 1.15
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close partial $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 dbl cal for 1.20. Waiting for price to move closer to my strike to close more. Bought yesterday for .65
#LongStraddle Sold to close partial $SNAP Feb 8th 7 calls for 1.75. Watching for a move higher. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.03.
#IronCondor Bought to close partial $DECK Feb 15th 105/110/145/150 condors for .50. Sold Thursday for .86.
STC Feb 8 142/144 Calls 1.90 #supercharger
BTO 1-31 $1.03
STC Feb 8 145/147 1.75
BTO 2-1 $1.03
Still open BUPS Feb 8 145/143 sold $.40 2-4-2019
Bot QQQ Mar 8 175c, SPY 277.5c, IWM 154c. First small layer.
Trading very carefully in case the rally doesn’t materialize.
Added another layer of SPY, QQQ, and IWM calls. Same strikes. Better price. Will hedge with VIX calls near the close if the downside wins today.
#vixindicator
GILD 70/70 expires this week rolled out 2 weeks for 0.48 credit. Cb now 8.95.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 6th 2710/2690 put spreads for 1.10. Selling only a .12 delta put spread. no call spread for tomorrow. This is based on upside warning going into effect. It still carries higher risk, because while an Upside Warning is a pretty sure shot for a move higher, we could always take a dip or a drop first. But I think this is sufficiently OTM to withstand a pullback, if one comes tomorrow.
STO March 15, 59/64 calls spread at .27 cents against my 2021 leaps.
#Earnings Bought to Open $SNAP Feb 8th 7 #LongStraddle for 1.03 (partial fill so far, may need to go to 1.04).
#VIXIndicator Here’s the version of the past results I posted back in May. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN of the preceding correction, and the date of the Upside Warning. Please ask any questions you have! (you can click on the chart to see it full screen).
As you can see, the Upside Warning is pretty reliable for at least a couple percentage points higher.
#Earnings Bought to Open $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 #DoubleCalendar for .65. (filled at .63 on TOS)
#Earnings — This one is a good double calendar candidate because it is cheap to buy. Premium for this Friday is not much lower than premium for next Friday. That gives us a pretty good range of profit; a range almost as wide as the max moves.
$CMI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO +7.62% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias 0.50%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 148.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.54 to 155.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.36 to 154.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.6%): 137.46 to 160.14
#shortputs MGM
On June 18, sold a July 20, 30 put for .43, rolled it 7 times, closed today and made .95.
Options Bistro 